tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-164384952024-03-13T10:34:58.115-05:00Center for International Finance & DevelopmentAt The University of Iowa College of Law<br>
<a href="http://uicifd.blogspot.com/">Current Events Blog:</a>Webmasterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03812565839828757976noreply@blogger.comBlogger1490125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-73181485908192508482013-01-03T16:05:00.000-06:002013-01-03T16:05:56.375-06:00Bangladesh’s Gains in Human DevelopmentBRAC: <a href="http://www.brac.net/content/targeting-extreme-poverty-programme-components#.UMN6wI7d7zI">Targeting Extreme Poverty: Programme Components</a><br />
Economist: <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21565617-bangladesh-has-dysfunctional-politics-and-stunted-private-sector-yet-it-has-been-surprisingly">The Path Through the Fields</a><br />
Guardian: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/jun/14/bangladesh-brac-aid-uk-australia?CMP=email">Bangladesh’s Brac Receives Large Aid Boost form UK and Australia</a><br />
Guardian: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/feb/20/internationalaidanddevelopment.bangladesh?CMP=email">Growing Discontent</a><br />
UNDP: <a href="http://www.undp.org.bd/library/reports/2009-02-09%20SSNPs%20in%20Bangladesh%20Upload.pdf">Social Safety Net Programmes in Bangladesh</a><br />
WB: <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/bangladesh">Bangladesh</a><br />
WB: <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/11/13/towards-accelerated-inclusive-and-sustainable-growth-in-bangladesh">Towards Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in Bangladesh</a><br />
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Bangladesh has made significant gains in the areas of education, health, and poverty reduction since its independence from Pakistan in 1971. Bangladeshis’ life expectancy increased from 59 years in 1990 to 69 years in 2010. Women’s life expectancy is two years longer than men’s. The country has cut its infant mortality rate by more than half from 1990 to 2010. Female enrollment in primary school increased from 45% in 2000 to 90% in 2005, which surpassed the primary school enrollment rate for boys. In addition, the poverty rate decreased between 2000 and 2010 from 49% to 32%. Part of these gains may be attributable to faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth in recent years—it has increased from around 3% in the 1970s to above 6% since 2004—but many of these gains are due to progressive government policies and strong non-governmental organization (NGO) involvement. The Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance Committee (BRAC) is one NGO, in particular, that has done much in the way of social spending.<br />
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One of the ways that Bangladesh’s government has helped achieve these gains is by providing free birth control and advising women about family planning. Today, more than 60% of women use birth control, compared to just 8% in 1975. Moreover, the average number of children each Bangladeshi woman gives birth to during her life has declined from 6.3 in 1975 to 2.3 today. The government has also dedicated about 12% of public spending to social programs designed to help the poor, such as food for work, cash for work, conditional cash transfer (money that is conditional upon school attendance, for example), and programs that give food and necessities to certain vulnerable households without conditions attached to the aid. However, government expenditures on education and health are lower than average among lower income countries, and the country’s safety nets are not able to reach many needy families. Thus, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) play a critical role in Bangladesh’s human development.<br />
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BRAC is one NGO that has played such a role. For example, BRAC, along with Grameen Bank, brought microcredit (small loans made to the poor) to Bangladesh, and today, the organization has loaned $725 million to five million borrowers. For those people that are too poor to truly benefit from a microloan, BRAC has created a program whereby it gives people income-producing assets such as livestock or crops (these assets produce food that people can feed themselves with as well as sell for a profit), and a monthly stipend, and then monitors the aid recipients for two years to help them become self-sufficient. In addition, BRAC operates a system of primary schools that provides an alternative to the state-run system and teaches about 1.5 million children each year. It also provides medical services to over 100 million people each year.<br />
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Despite the extensive role that BRAC has played and continues to play in Bangladesh’s development, some criticize the organization for assuming the role of a government, but without any accountability. For example, farmers have accused BRAC of marketing hybrid rice and corn seeds to them by misstating production costs and crop yields. The leader of one group that is critical of the practice of promoting hybrid seeds claims that hybrid crop production is responsible for depleting underground water sources, contaminating drinking water, and intensifying desertification in the northern part of the country. BRAC argues, however, that these hybrid seeds are more profitable for farmers than traditional crop strains. This problem demonstrates one of the many trade-offs that can accompany every country’s path to development and the difficulties that heavy NGO involvement can cause.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-76741927362151568872012-12-30T14:33:00.001-06:002012-12-30T14:38:45.332-06:00Corruption in Italy Threatens the Efficacy of Fiscal Stimulus<style>
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<b>Sources: </b></div>
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The Telegraph (U.K.):
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</style><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9622553/Making-a-killing-on-contracts-how-Italys-Mafia-has-plundered-EU-building-funds.html"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Making a killing on contracts: how Italy's Mafia has plundered EU building funds</span></a>
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</style></span> <a href="https://myaccount.nytimes.com/auth/login?URI=http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/world/europe/in-italy-calabria-is-drained-by-corruption.html&OQ=Q70Q61Q67Q65Q77Q61Q6eQ74Q65Q64Q3dQ61Q6cQ6cQ26Q5fQ72Q3dQ30">Corruption Is Seen as a Drain on Italy’s South </a>
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<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">BBC: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19886631">Italy sacks Reggio Calabria council over 'mafia ties'</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Cambria; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">US DOS: <a href="http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2012/vol1/184100.htm#Italy">2012 INCSR: Country Reports - Honduras through Mexico: Italy</a></span></div>
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Mafia led corruption continues to plague Southern Italy,
leading to government inefficiency and a reduction in the efficacy of domestic
and international infrastructural spending. </div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"></span>The
A3 highway has been at the epicenter of Italian corruption scandals. The
highway, which spans an area from Salerno to Reggio Calabria, lies in one of
the poorest regions in Italy. Located at the tip of the Southern peninsula, the
area lacks high-speed rails, many other infrastructural amenities found
elsewhere in the country, and has close to a 20 percent unemployment rate. The
Italian government embarked on a plan to renovate the A3, along with other
infrastructural projects, in 2001 after receiving funding from the European
Union (EU). Since the inception of the project, construction has been completed
on 169 miles of the 309-mile highway, and hundreds of people have been arrested
in association with their involvement on the highway, mostly on charges of
corruption and extortion. Sergio Rizzo, an author who focuses on political
corruption, says that European money “did tremendous damage because the funds
were used badly and, as some magistrates say, they also fed organized crime.”
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> </div>
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Calabria,
the region located in Italy’s Southern peninsula is dominated by the
‘Ndrangheta, an international crime syndicate. The ‘Ndrangheta has an annual
income of <span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">€</span>44 billion from a combination of drug smuggling, extortion,
and public-sector graft, and while lesser know than its peers
in Sicily or Naples, the ‘Ndrangheta’s reputation has increased greatly over
the past decade.</div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The
‘Ndrangheta plays a major role in public sector life in Calabria. On October 9,
the provincial capital of Calabria, Reggio Calabria, dismissed all 30 members
of the City Council and the mayor for suspected ties to the ‘Ndrangheta.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The move, which Italian Interior
Minister Annamaria Cancelleri said was designed to prevent “mafia contagion,”
came after months of criminal investigation.</div>
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<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> </div>
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Since
2007, over <span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">€3 billion has gone from the EU to Calabria, much of that for
infrastructure projects, much of that to the ‘Ndrangheta.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the E</span>U has been able to
recover <span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">€383
million appropriated to the A3, the potential for future fraud and
mismanagement remains high. “The ‘Ndrangheta is like an octopus,” said
anti-mafia magistrate Roberto di Palma, “whenever there is money, you will find
its tentacles.”</span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> </span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">The
revelations into the corruption scandals come as the European Commission pushes
for a 6.8 percent increase in its annual budget, much of that money going
towards funding infrastructural projects in Southern and Eastern Europe. The A3
highways symbolizes a fear for many northern European countries that the
Eurozone will develop into a welfare state where fiscal stimulus is misspent or
lost to graft at taxpayers expense. While infrastructure spending can have
enormous benefit, a challenge for the EU will be increasing oversight and
accountability as they continue to fund infrastructural projects.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_GoBack"></a></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_GoBack"></a></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com32tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-41367561654325932142012-11-30T15:54:00.000-06:002012-11-30T15:54:04.495-06:00Lithuania Seeks Alternative Natural Gas Sources to Reduce its Energy Dependence on RussiaBusiness Recorder: <a href="http://www.brecorder.com/fuel-a-energy/193/1245553/">Lithuania Sues Russian Gas Giant Gazprom</a> <br />FT: <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/10/16/nuclear-power-in-cee-deeper-in-doubt/#axzz2BKAH8sBx">CEE Nuclear Power: Deeper in Doubt</a> <br />NYT: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/business/energy-environment/chevron-intent-on-european-shale-gas-buys-lithuanian-stake.html?_r=0">Chevron, Intent on European Shale Gas, Buys Lithuanian Stake</a> <br />Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/25/us-chevron-lithuania-idUSBRE89O0NG20121025">Chevron to Prospect for Shale Gas in Lithuania</a> <br />Reuters: <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/30/lithuania-lng-idUKL5E8LUEHZ20121030">Lithuania Gets 16 Proposals to Supply LNG</a> <br />Reuters: <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/23/lithuania-lng-idUKL5E8LN2Y820121023">Lithuania Terminal Calls LNG Supply Tender</a> <br />SF Chronicle: <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Lithuanians-deal-blow-to-austerity-nuclear-plans-3949198.php">Lithuanians Deal Blow to Austerity, Nuclear Plans</a> <br />WSJ: <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2012/10/25/chevron-enters-lithuanian-oil-and-gas-exploration/?mod=WSJBlog">Chevron Enters Lithuanian Oil and Gas Exploration</a> <br />
<br />
To reduce its energy dependence on Russia, Lithuania is encouraging private companies to explore for shale gas (a type of natural gas) and actively seeking new liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers. Lithuania imports over 60% of its total electricity needs, more than any other European Union (EU) country. In 2009, Lithuania shut down its only atomic power plant, which was built when the country was part of the Soviet Union, due to safety concerns. To make up for this loss of energy, Lithuania began importing more natural gas from Gazprom, a Russian gas company. These imports totaled 3.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2011, or 100% of Lithuania’s natural gas consumption. Countries completely dependent on Gazprom for natural gas have experienced problems in the past. For example, in the winter of 2009, the Ukrainian government entered into a pricing dispute with Gazprom. As a result, Gazprom cut off the country’s gas supply for three weeks leaving hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without heat. This is why the Lithuanian government recently made energy independence a priority for the country.<br /> <br />According to Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Andrius Kubilius, Lithuania has 120 bcm of underground shale gas reserves that could be recovered through specialized extraction methods. In order to access the reserves and reduce its dependence on Gazprom, the Lithuanian government has been auctioning off shale gas exploration licenses to private companies. In May 2012, Minijos Nafta, a Lithuanian oil exploration company, began drilling wells in its license area around Gargzdai. In October 2012, Chevron, the second largest U.S. oil company, announced it was purchasing a 50% stake in LL Investicijos, a privately owned Lithuanian oil and gas exploration company. Investicijos holds a license to prospect for gas on a 2,400 square kilometer field near the town of Rietavas. According to Derek Magness, Chevron’s Director General of onshore European operations, the company believes Lithuania’s government will welcome Chevron’s involvement due to its desire to break free from Gazprom. Prime Minister Kubilius described Chevron’s investment as a “good sign,” and the Ministry of the Environment announced plans to auction off two more licenses to shale gas areas in 2012. <br /> <br />The Lithuanian government has also attempted to find new suppliers of LNG to reduce its dependence on Russia. Klaipedos Nafta, a state-owned operator of oil terminals (facilities for storing natural gas), is opening a new LNG storage unit in 2014 that it expects will distribute up to 4 bcm of natural gas to Lithuania each year. In October 2012, Klaipedos Nafta received bids from 16 companies offering to supply LNG to the new storage facility. Rokas Masiulis, Klaipedos Nafta’s Chief Executive, said the number of bids received was “unexpectedly high” and would help put an end to Lithuania’s dependence on a single gas supply source. The bids came from companies all over the world, including the U.S., Qatar, and Norway. Klaipedos Nafta hopes to sign one of these non-Russian companies to a ten year supply contract for 0.75 bcm of natural gas per year. In addition, Klaipedos Nafta entered negotiations with Cheniere Energy, an energy company based in the U.S., to purchase LNG in the spot markets (purchase of gas for immediate delivery at current market prices) beginning in late 2015. <br /> <br />The Lithuanian government’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas are coming at a critical time for the country. In October 2012, Lithuania filed an international lawsuit against Gazprom seeking approximately $1.9 billion in damages. Lithuania alleged that Gazprom abused its market clout to increase Lithuanian gas prices almost 500% from $84 per cubic meter of gas in 2004 to $497 in 2012. Lithuania’s Prime Minister hopes Gazprom will ultimately agree to a settlement involving more favorable gas prices, but warned the lawsuit could drag on for several years if no settlement is reached. Although Gazprom angrily contested the lawsuit’s allegations, the Lithuanian government’s continued efforts at energy independence may provide a powerful economic incentive for the company to reach a settlement.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-34949856190138575372012-11-29T18:16:00.000-06:002012-11-29T18:16:22.498-06:00Despite a Recent Rise in Inflation, Mexico’s Central Bank Keeps Its Interest Rate Unchanged
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</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-26/carstens-says-mexico-bank-sent-stronger-message-on-inflation"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Carstens Says Mexico Bank Sent Stronger Message
on Inflation</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-26/mexico-keeps-key-rate-unchanged-as-inflation-halts-4-month-rise.html"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Mexico Keeps Key Rate
Unchanged as Inflation Halts 4-Month Rise</span></a></div>
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FoxNews: <a href="http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/11/27/mexico-economy-will-grow-33-pct-in-2013-oecd-says/"><span style="color: #6fa8dc; font-family: inherit;">Mexico’s
Economy Will Grow 3.3 pct in 2013, OECD Says</span></a></div>
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GulfNews: <a href="http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/mexico-to-hike-rates-if-inflation-persists-1.1094558"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Mexico to Hike Rates if Inflation Persists</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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MNI: <a href="https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/bank-mexico-may-need-tighten-soon-anchor-infl-expect?q=content/bank-mexico-may-need-tighten-soon-anchor-infl-expect"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Bank of Mexico: May Need to Tighten Soon to
Anchor Infl Expect</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/26/mexico-economy-idUSL1E8LPERS20121026"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Mexico Central Bank Seen Holding Rates on
Easing Inflation</span></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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Inflation—a general rise in the price levels of goods and
services, which causes a decrease in the purchasing power of money—has become a
concern for Mexico. One of the main tools to stop rising inflation is to
increase the country’s interest rate. A higher interest rate increases the cost
of borrowing, which decreases the amount of money in the economy. When there is
less money, consumers tend to spend less and demand less goods and services,
which lowers the price level of those goods and services, and, thus, lowers
inflation. However, Mexico currently does not want to increase interest rates because
the country wants to stimulate growth in its economy—a low interest rate
stimulates investment, which helps boost the economy. Mexico’s central bank
must balance the concern of controlling inflation with its attempts to stimulate
the economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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According to the central bank, the targeted range for
inflation in Mexico is between 2% and 4%. The inflation rate has been outside
this range since May 2012, when the rate began to rise (3.41% in April 2012 to
3.85% in May 2012). The inflation rate continued to rise until October 2012,
when the rate fell from 4.77% in September 2012 to 4.64% in October 2012. Due
to this recent inflation shock, the central bank considered increasing the
interest rate. However, on October 26, 2012, the central bank’s Governor
Augustin Carstens announced that the interest rate would remain at 4.5%. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The central bank’s decision to keep the interest rate
unchanged reflects its view that the inflation shock is temporary, as the
pressures causing the inflation rate to rise are short-term. The recent drought
and outbreak of bird flu decreased the food supply, which caused price levels
to increase, especially for eggs and chicken. Mexico also has a low unemployment
rate, which recently hit pre-recession levels—4.68% in September 2012. Since
more people are employed, they have more money to spend, which increases demand
and, thus, price levels. But, this drop is potentially short-term because the
rate quickly began to increase in October 2012 (4.83%). Moreover, these
inflationary pressures are counter-balanced by the recent quantitative easing
policies of the United States (injecting new money into the economy), which
will cause the peso to appreciate versus the dollar and result in cheaper
imports. Economists also predict slower growth in the Mexican economy: between
3.5% and 4% in the second half of 2012, compared to the 4.3% growth in the
first half of 2012. Slower growth leads to decreased demand, which keeps prices
down.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The Mexican central bank kept the interest rate unchanged
because the need to boost the slowing economy outweighed the need to control
the temporary rise in inflation. Economists predict that the decrease in
economic growth in the second half of 2012 will continue in 2013, as growth
will drop to 3.3%. Economic growth is important because it generally improves
the population’s standard of living and reduces poverty. Despite the need to
stimulate economic growth, Governor Carstens reaffirmed the central bank’s
commitment to lowering inflation into its targeted range and warned that the
central bank would increase the interest rate if the inflation shock persists.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<!--EndFragment-->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-27873563315107866302012-11-29T16:39:00.000-06:002012-11-29T16:39:47.828-06:00Economists Offer Varying Post-Hurricane-Sandy Economic Predictions
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Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-10-31/sandy-after-the-pain-long-term-gain">After
Sandy's Pain, There Will Be Gain</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/49622885">Sandy's Economic
Cost: Up to $50 Billion and Counting</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0a6e74a6-26b2-11e2-9109-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Bq5tTMDa">Post-Sandy Rebuilding Boost for US Economy</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
IBT: <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/hurricane-sandy-broken-window-fallacy-868878">Hurricane Sandy and the Broken Window Fallacy</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
InvestmentNews: <a href="http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20121104/REG/311049972">Sandy's Stimulative
Effect Could Be Short-Lived</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
MoneyNews: <a href="http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Morici-Sandy-economic-damage/2012/10/29/id/461887">Morici: Sandy’s Economic Damage Will Be Hard to
Measure, Boom Possible</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Washington Post: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/hiring-for-post-storm-construction-work-could-boost-industry-and-us-economy-next-year/2012/11/04/55e304b0-26a3-11e2-ac64-5d52a2c5953e_story.html">Hiring for Post-Storm
Construction Work Could Boost Industry and US Economy Next Year</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
WSJ: <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/11/01/economists-react-naive-to-think-of-sandy-as-stimulus/">Economists React: ‘Naive’ to Think of Sandy as
Stimulus</a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
During the last week of October 2012, Hurricane Sandy swept
through the east coast of the United States. This “superstorm” damaged homes,
businesses, and infrastructure, such as roads and power grids. Hurricane Sandy
also shut down business activity for two days in twelve states (from Virginia
to Maine). The estimated damage and lost economic activity is between $30 and
$50 billion, which amounts to between 0.2% and 0.3% of gross domestic product
(GDP). After the storm passed, economists offered their early predictions of Hurricane
Sandy’s short-term and long-term national economic effects. However, there is
little consensus among these predictions.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Some economists believe that Hurricane Sandy will create
greater economic growth in 2013, which will outweigh the superstorm’s negative
effect on fourth-quarter GDP in 2012. For instance, Mark Vitner of Wells Fargo predicted
that a 0.2% increase in both first and second-quarter GDP in 2013 will outweigh
the 0.1% to 0.3% decrease in fourth-quarter GDP in 2012. These economists base
their predictions on a theory called the “broken window effect,” which posits
that economic activity will increase after an event of severe destruction (if a
window is broken, money must be spent to fix it, which boosts GDP). Applying
this theory to Hurricane Sandy’s destruction, activity in the construction
industry will increase to fix damaged homes, businesses, and infrastructure. This
increased activity will lead to job growth and, in the long-term, economic
growth.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Other economists rebut this theory—calling it the “broken
window <i>fallacy</i>.” Economists, like
Gregory Daco and Nigel Gault of IHS Global Insight, argue that Hurricane Sandy
will have a negligible effect on GDP because the increased activity in the
construction industry will act as a substitute for activity in other industries,
such as entertainment. For example, rather than spend money on a vacation,
consumers will spend money to fix their damaged homes. History seems to side
with this group of economists, as a study by Eric Strobl (from the Ecole
Polytechnique in Paris) found that hurricanes between 1970 and 2005 generally had
a negligible effect on the national economy. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite these differences in predictions, most, if not all,
economists would agree that the damaged homes, businesses, and infrastructure should
not only be rebuilt, but should be rebuilt to be even <i>better</i> than before—for example, sturdier and more energy efficient
buildings. This would increase the nation’s capital stock (a term that includes
plant (such as factories and other structures), equipment, and machinery) as it
would be more productive and efficient, and would provide the nation with a
better chance for economic growth in the future.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-21658494213771088522012-11-28T15:26:00.000-06:002012-11-28T15:26:07.519-06:00Questions and Opportunities for Myanmar’s Telecommunications IndustryADB: <a href="http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2012/myanmar-in-transition.pdf">Myanmar in Transition: Opportunities and Challenges</a><br />
ADB: <a href="http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2012/MYA.pdf">Asian Development Bank & Myanmar: Fact Sheet</a><br />
Ash Center: <a href="http://www.ash.harvard.edu/extension/ash/docs/electricity.pdf">Electricity in Myanmar: The Missing Prerequisite for Development</a><br />
Economist: <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2012/07/investing-myanmar">Triplicating Success</a><br />
UNdata: <a href="http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=MYANMAR">Myanmar</a><br />
The Nation: <a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Myanmar-a-land-of-opportunity-and-inequality-30190544.html">Myanmar: a Land of Opportunity and Inequality</a><br />
Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-myanmar-telecoms-idUSBRE88C03K20120913">Insight: Disconnected for Decades, Myanmar Poised for Telecoms Boom</a><br />
TrustLaw: <a href="http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/detail.dot?id=cc937d78-b57c-4527-ba07-30ae149834f4">Corruption and Unsophisticated Legal System Topped List of Risks in Myanmar, Experts Say</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304636404577290733756605886.html">Myanmar Considers Letting Outsiders into Telecom Market Amid Overhauls</a><br />
<br />
Myanmar’s government recently began plans to liberalize and expand its underdeveloped telecommunications (telecom) industry. Historically, Myanmar’s government has largely controlled the telecom industry and foreign investors were unable to obtain operating licenses in the country. However, a new investment law will give investors the opportunity to participate in the growth and development of the telecom industry by making additional operating licenses available to both foreign and domestic investors. Nevertheless, questions remain about how exactly the expansion and development of the industry will proceed. Some analysts have expressed concern that urban areas will receive priority over rural ones in terms of investment, which will exacerbate existing disparities between the rural and urban populations.<br />
<br />
Currently, only about 5.6% of Myanmar’s population has access to cell phones. The cost of SIM cards has gone down from about $1000 in 2011 to just $250 in some areas of the country, but this is still prohibitively expensive for a large percentage of the population—Myanmar’s average per capita income in 2009 was only about $379. SIM cards are expensive because Myanmar’s cell phone networks do not have enough capacity to handle many users. Yet, the head of Myanmar’s Post and Telecommunications Department aims for 50% of the population to have cell phone access by 2015.<br />
<br />
Despite the prospect of a newly open telecom industry with a largely untapped market, investors continue to worry about the predictability of Myanmar’s legal system, as well as the adequacy of Myanmar’s infrastructure. Myanmar’s legal system is ill equipped to accommodate modern business practices because many of the country’s laws date back to the early 20th Century. Moreover, equal application of Myanmar’s laws is dubious because of corruption and a lack of judicial independence. Thus, investors cannot be sure that the judiciary will enforce their contracts. In terms of infrastructure, Myanmar has no major highways, no deep-sea ports as of yet (although, one is expected to be completed by the end of the year), and electricity is inadequate. Less than 25% of the population had access to electricity from Myanmar’s power grid in 2011, but demand still outstripped supply by about 100%. Moreover, plans to increase capacity will only do so by about 5% per year and the source of this new capacity, hydroelectricity, will not be available year round because of Myanmar’s dry season. The problems with the country’s infrastructure will make it more time consuming, expensive, and less profitable to invest in Myanmar’s telecom industry because the country is not immediately prepared to support new and improved telecom networks.<br />
<br />
Moreover, although growth in the telecom industry will create new job opportunities for the Burmese people and give the rural population access to new services, such as mobile banking, some analysts worry that development will not occur evenly across the country. Already, there are large disparities between urban and rural populations. For example, about 84% of impoverished individuals live in rural areas. Moreover, only 34% of the rural population has access to electricity in some form compared with 89% of the urban population. If investment in telecoms is concentrated in urban areas, these disparities will only grow, which could hinder Myanmar’s social cohesion, political stability and human development.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-17356970869738987142012-11-22T00:39:00.000-06:002012-11-22T00:39:30.854-06:00Ireland Considers the Benefits and Drawbacks of Additional Austerity MeasuresBusinessWeek: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-09/draghi-says-no-alternative-to-austerity-as-economies-shrink">Draghi Says No Alternative to Austerity as Economies Shrink</a> <br />FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1ab078dc-0ef2-11e2-9343-00144feabdc0.html#axzz29HBuhQq3">Ireland Revises Growth Forecast Down</a><br />Herald: <a href="http://www.herald.ie/news/we-got-it-wrong-on-austerity-and-made-things-worse-imf-3253951.html">We got it Wrong on Austerity and Made Things Worse – IMF</a><br />IMF: <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/cr12264.pdf">Ireland Staff Report For the 2012 Article IV Consultation</a><br />Irish Examiner: <a href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/35bn-budget-plan-to-stay-despite-imf-admission-210483.html">€3.5bn budget Plan to Stay Despite IMF Admission</a> <br />Irish Examiner: <a href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/imf-chief-dont-sacrifice-growth-for-the-sake-of-austerity-570368.html">IMF Chief: Don't Sacrifice Growth for the Sake of Austerity</a><br />
Irish Examiner: <a href="http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/imf-failure-to-act-could-tip-ireland-into-recession-210299.html">IMF: Failure to Act Could Tip Ireland into Recession</a> <br />Irish Times: <a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/1009/breaking24.html">ECB 'Cannot Print Money'</a><br />Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/02/us-ireland-economy-sentiment-idUSBRE8910EW20121002">Irish Consumer Confidence Sags, More Austerity Feared</a> <br />WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443768804578034313413737022.html?mod=djemITPE_h">For Ireland, More Austerity Is a Strain</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444032404578007951061647888.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">Irish Economy Skirts Recession</a> <br />
<br />There is currently a debate in Ireland about whether or not the Irish government should move forward with an accelerated round of austerity measures (policies designed to reduce federal deficits through cuts in government services and/or increases in taxes). Austerity measures are used to stimulate economic growth by reducing government deficits down to sustainable levels and increasing investor confidence in government finances. Ireland, which experienced a severe financial crisis in 2007, has implemented a series of austerity programs over the last four years. Despite these efforts, the Central Bank of Ireland recently warned that Ireland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will only grow by 0.5% in 2012, 0.2 percentage points less than previously anticipated. Additionally, the Bank forecasts that Ireland’s GDP will grow just 1.7% in 2013, down from a prior forecast of 1.9%. This slowdown in growth, driven by a decrease in demand for Irish exports due to weakness in the global economy, is putting additional pressure on Ireland’s budget. As a result, the Central Bank of Ireland, the European Central Bank (ECB), and many business leaders believe it is important for Ireland to continue reducing its budget deficits through austerity measures in the short run. Others, including some economists and labor unions, believe that additional austerity programs will actually slow Ireland’s economic growth, and that generating tax revenues by increasing domestic demand is the easiest way to reduce deficits in the long run.<br /><br />Ireland first initiated austerity measures in 2008 to reduce the budget deficit created when the country invested billions of dollars in its banking sector during the 2007 financial crisis. Prior to the financial crisis, Ireland’s deficit-to-GDP ratio was just 25%; however, by 2010 it had increased to over 90% and GDP had fallen by 8%. Between 2008 and 2010, the country managed to reduce its budget deficit by over €15 billion through cuts in government services and increases in taxes. To further reduce its deficits and spur economic growth, Ireland negotiated a €67.5 billion bailout agreement with the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2010. This agreement required Ireland to implement an additional €15 billion of austerity measures through 2015. Ireland’s austerity efforts helped pull the Irish economy out of its recession in 2009, and reduce Ireland’s budget deficit by 4.1% between 2009 and 2011. As a result, some analysts have said Ireland has the best chance of all the bailed out countries in the Eurozone to recover from its financial crisis.<br /><br />To meet the IMF’s €15 billion austerity target, Ireland must implement a final €8.6 billion of austerity measures through 2015, which includes €3.5 billion of deficit reductions in 2013. The Central Bank of Ireland recently advocated accelerating these cuts to reduce the length of time Irish companies will need to worry about the uncertain impact of future austerity measures. The Bank believes the uncertainty surrounding these measures has curtailed many companies’ willingness to invest in growth opportunities in Ireland. The Bank also believes that certain austerity measures, such as cutting public sector pay, will ultimately make Ireland more competitive. The implementation of more austerity measures in Ireland is also supported by the EU. Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB, recently commented that there is no alternative to continued austerity measures for countries receiving bailout funds. He argued that one of the original drivers of the European financial crisis was the “unsustainability of deficits and debt levels." <br /><br />Unfortunately, due to the amount of cuts Ireland has already made to its budget, new austerity measures are placing increasingly heavy burdens on Ireland’s population that threaten the country’s domestic demand for goods and services. For example, future austerity measures will likely require cuts in child welfare payments and increases in payroll taxes. Other proposed austerity measures include cutting social security and health benefits, and introducing a new tax on households. Some economists and labor unions within Ireland believe these drastic measures will do more harm than good to the Irish economy, and are encouraging the government to reconsider its austerity program. Ide Kearney, an economic research professor at Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute, believes additional austerity measures will not improve Ireland’s struggling domestic economy given its dependence on exports to the rest of Europe. Additionally, Jack O’Connor, the leader of Ireland’s largest labor organization, believes that given Ireland’s almost 15% unemployment rate, further cuts to welfare payments might reduce the deficit in the short run, but will weaken domestic demand and prevent Ireland’s economy from growing in the long run. <br /><br />The IMF also questioned the wisdom of additional austerity measures in a recent academic report that found for every €100 a government saved through an austerity program, it reduced its country’s GDP by between €90 and €170. The IMF admitted that reductions in economic growth resulting from prior austerity measures “worsened [Ireland’s levels of] poverty and inequality.” Future austerity measures are likely to have a similar effect, and media speculation about additional welfare cuts in September of 2012 already caused a 20% drop in Ireland’s consumer expectations index (a measure of the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the future of their economy). Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of the IMF, summed up Ireland’s difficult choice between reducing its deficit through austerity and encouraging growth in domestic demand to generate tax revenues. She noted that “reducing public debt is incredibly difficult without growth” and that high debt “makes it harder to get growth.” Therefore, she said countries like Ireland have a “very narrow path” to take and must make their spending cuts at just the “right pace” in the medium term in order to sustain growth in the long term. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-85939849876357798312012-11-21T23:38:00.000-06:002012-11-21T23:38:49.516-06:00Rise in Inflation Puts Pressure on India’s EconomyArihant Investments: <a href="http://www.arihantinvestments.com/articles/CashReserveRatio.pdf">Cash Reserve Ratio</a><br />
Economist: <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21560896">Who Cares about the Price of Onions</a><br />
Economy Watch: <a href="http://www.economywatch.com/inflation/index/wholesale-price.html">Wholesale Price Index</a><br />
Fed of San Francisco: <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/education/activities/drecon/2004/0410.html">Ask Dr. Econ</a><br />
IMF: Inflation: <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/inflat.htm">Prices on the Rise</a><br />
RBI: <a href="http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/AnnualReport/PDFs/01ANR230812FL.pdf">Reserve Bank of India Annual Report 2011–12</a><br />
Reuters: <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/10/15/india-economy-coreinflation-idINDEE89E04E20121015">Sept Core Inflation Seen Around 5.56 Pct – Analysts</a><br />
UPI: <a href="http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/09/18/Indian-central-bank-cuts-cash-reserve-ratio/UPI-58951347941669/">Indian Central Bank Cuts Cash Reserve Ratio</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204840504578087900179857898.html?KEYWORDS=india+cash+reserve+ratio">India Leave Interest Rate Unchanged</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443768804578033902233477368.html?KEYWORDS=inflation+india">India Monetary Policy to Factor In Impact of Economic Reforms</a><br />
<br />
High inflation rates are plaguing India’s economy and causing tension between the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Indian government. The core inflation rate (rate at which the price of all goods except food and energy changes) in India increased about 5.56% from this time last year and has remained between about 5% and 6% for several months. Meanwhile, wholesale inflation (reflects the price of goods bought and sold by corporations as opposed to individual consumers) stands at around 7.55%. The fact that the wholesale inflation rate in India has been above 7% since 2010 shows that this is not just a short term problem, particularly because the RBI’s target inflation rate is 5%. The RBI is determined to curb inflation through tight monetary policies such as increasing interest rates and cash reserve ratios (CRR) (the percentage of depositors’ money that banks must keep on hand). However, the government blames the RBI’s policies for hindering economic growth by tightening access to credit. Both sides have taken steps to liberalize their economic policies, but tensions remain because the government wants the RBI to do more to help stimulate growth, while the RBI blames the government’s policies for helping to increase inflation.<br />
<br />
Inflation hurts both the standard of living of many Indians, as well as the development of India’s economy. High inflation rates disproportionately hurt poor people because the poor do not have the monetary resources to adapt to higher prices, and thus, are forced to lower their consumption. Inflation also hurts both savings and investment rates. Households, in particular, save less because current prices look more attractive than future prices, which encourages people to buy goods right away. Moreover, people must spend their savings to maintain their lifestyle when prices go up faster than their incomes. Household savings declined from 12.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009 to just 7.8% in 2011. Furthermore, Indians seem to be investing what money they do save in valuables such as gold, rather than in physical assets such as housing. Investment in valuables increased 3.7% in 2008 to 7.9% in 2011. Government savings have also declined in large part because of stimulus measures, which lowered revenue and increased government expenditures at the same time. Consequently, neither private individuals nor the government has enough money to invest and help achieve the government’s goals for developing the economy. <br />
<br />
In response to high inflation rates, the RBI raised its interest rates 13 times between March 2010 and October 2011. The RBI lowered the interest rate in April 2012 for the first and only time in three years, and since April, the interest rate has remained at 8%. The RBI also increased the CRR twice during that initial time period, from 5% to 6% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) (bank deposits, as well as liabilities to other banks). Higher interest rates help control inflation because they lower the demand for goods and services by making it more expensive to borrow money. Higher CRRs, on the other hand, decrease the overall supply of money in the market, which helps restrain the unit value of the rupee. Unfortunately, these policy measures also discourage private investment for these same reasons—more expensive and less available money. Moreover, analysts, and the RBI itself, blame this monetary tightening for helping to depress India’s expected GDP growth this year to about 5% from 8.4% growth in 2009 and 2010.<br />
<br />
To spur growth and temper the effects of its inflation policies, the RBI cut the CRR in September and October of this year to 4.25% of NDTL. However, the government continues to urge the RBI to lower interest rates as well. Recently, the government decided to decrease fuel subsidies, which will help lower the fiscal deficit because it will be expending less money. The government also decided to allow foreign investment in areas such as the retail, aviation, and broadcasting sectors. Lower interest rates would help boost investment in these newly open sectors because it would enable businesses and individuals to access cheaper loans.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-51071238628847011752012-11-15T16:27:00.000-06:002012-11-15T16:27:29.228-06:00U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises to Pre-Recession Levels
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Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-11-01/ahead-of-the-bell-us-consumer-confidence"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Ahead of the Bell: US Consumer
Confidence</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-09/michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-increased-to-84-9-in-november.html"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Consumer
Sentiment in U.S. Increases More Than Forecast</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-12/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-rose-in-october-to-pre-recession-high.html"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Consumer
Sentiment in U.S. Rises to Pre-Recession High</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/upbeat-consumers-to-sustain-u-dot-s-dot-as-companies-hesitate-economy"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Upbeat Consumers to Sustain
U.S. as Companies Hesitate</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
FoxBusiness: <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2012/10/12/us-consumer-sentiment-unexpectedly-picks-up-in-october/#ixzz29EpeCZ6X"><span style="color: windowtext;">U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Picks Up in October</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/848413f6-1468-11e2-8cf2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz29EiItBaK"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">US Optimism Reaches Five-Year
High</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Global Economic Intersection: <a href="http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=27172"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Preliminary October 2012
Michigan Consumer Sentiment At 5 Year High</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
NYT: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/business/economy/wholesale-inflation-up-1-1.html?_r=0"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps
to a 5-Year High</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-usa-economy-sentiment-idUSBRE89B0U320121012"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps
Ahead of Elections</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
WSJ: <a href="http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-12/economy/34399837_1_gauge-of-consumer-expectations-consumer-sentiment-michigan-confidence-index"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">U.S.
Consumer Sentiment Jumps to Five-Year High</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p> </o:p>Economists track the Thompson Reuters-University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index (Consumer Sentiment Index) to understand how consumers
perceive their personal finances, overall business conditions, and other buying
conditions. The Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence, which
helps predict the direction of consumer spending. Consumer spending is
important because it has the potential to support an economic recovery (an
increase in consumer spending increases overall demand, which indicates that
output and employment will improve in the near future). This is why economists,
like David Sloan, an economist for 4Cast in New York, were pleasantly surprised
after Thompson Reuters-University of Michigan announced that the Consumer
Sentiment Index reached its highest level in five years.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 83.1 in October 2012.
This is significant because the October Index level moves consumer sentiment
closer to non-recessionary levels. During non-recessionary periods, the average
Consumer Sentiment Index level is 87.9, while during recessionary periods it is
69.3. The October Index level of 83.1 is much closer to non-recessionary levels
and marks the Index’s highest point since before the country’s recent
recession.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Consumer Sentiment
Index rose because consumers either are richer or they perceive themselves to
be richer. Consumers are richer because more consumers are employed and have an
income. The unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in the past four years—7.8%.
Consumers perceive themselves to be richer (a phenomenon called the “wealth
effect”) because property prices across the country have increased—<a href="http://uicifd.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-united-states-housing-market-shows.html"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">property prices jumped to $187,300, which is almost a 10%
increase over last year</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink">—and</span>
stock prices reached their highest level since 2007—13.9% increase this year
alone. Since consumers either are richer or they perceive themselves to be
richer, they will likely spend more, which is an encouraging sign for the
country’s general economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Economists question whether the increase in consumer
sentiment is sustainable in light of future economic uncertainties, such as the
effects of the European debt crisis and the looming fiscal cliff <a href="http://uicifd.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-us-fiscal-cliff-and-its-threat-to.html"><span style="color: windowtext; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">(simultaneous
increase in tax rates and decrease in government spending)</span></a>. The
business sector is also skeptical, as shown by its low sentiment level. The Institute
for Supply Management index (an indicator of business sentiment that measures
activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors) was 51.7 in October
2012, which represents only a 0.2 increase from its level in September 2012
(51.5) and is only slightly higher than 50.0—the dividing line between
expansion (a positive sign for business sentiment) and contraction (a negative
sign for business sentiment) in these sectors. Despite these uncertainties,
consumers continued to express confidence in the economy as the Consumer
Sentiment Index climbed to 84.9 in November 2012. Moreover, this trend seems
likely to continue as the Consumer Expectations Index—a measure of consumers’
economic expectations six months in advance—increased from 79.0 in October 2012
to 80.8 in November 2012, which marks the highest level since July 2007. <o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<!--EndFragment-->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-13305808245560515952012-11-12T16:39:00.000-06:002012-11-12T16:39:31.679-06:00Ten European Union Countries Consider Implementing a Controversial Tax on Financial TransactionsBBC: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20041588">Financial Transaction Tax for 10 EU States</a> <br />
CNNMoney: <a href="http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/10/24/robin-hood-tax/">Robin Hood Tax Gains Traction in Europe</a><br />Guardian: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/23/european-financial-transaction-tax-closer">European Financial Transaction Tax Moves Step Closer</a><br />Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/23/us-eu-tax-idUSBRE89M0JY20121023">EU Commission Backs 10 Countries' Transaction Tax Plan</a><br />Telegraph: <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9628734/Financial-transaction-tax-will-raise-billions-says-EU-Commission.html">Financial Transaction Tax Will 'Raise Billions', Says EU Commission</a><br />WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443982904578046532220799200.html">Eleven European Countries Support Tax on Transactions</a><br /><br />A controversial proposal by ten European Union (EU) member states to tax financial transactions within their borders could help those countries reduce their deficits, but it could also reduce their economic growth and drive their banking and investment businesses offshore toward untaxed financial centers. The proposal by ten EU members, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Greece, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia, would impose a 0.1% tax on the trades of stocks and bonds and a 0.01% tax on the trades of derivatives (a contract between two parties whose value depends on other underlying assets). Although the tax on each individual transaction is low, the plan could produce substantial amounts of revenue for the ten countries due to the significant number of transactions completed within their borders each year. France’s European Affairs Minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, said such a plan could generate more than €10 billion per year. <br /><br />
Proponents of the financial transaction tax argue that increased tax revenues could help the ten countries offset their costs associated with the European sovereign debt crisis, including the hundreds of billions of euros spent on bailing out struggling banks. The tax is particularly popular with taxpayers who feel as though they have suffered due to austerity measures (policies designed to reduce federal deficits through cuts in government services and/or increases in taxes) implemented to help fund the rescue of failed banks. According to Jose Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission, which functions as the EU’s executive branch, the tax is motivated by “fairness” and is designed to “ensure the costs of the crisis are shared by the financial sector instead of just shouldered by ordinary citizens.” To show support for the tax, members of grassroots organizations have started to dress up as Robin Hood (a fictional character who robbed the rich to help the poor) at public rallies that are reminiscent of the Occupy Wall Street events in the United States. <br /><br />
Opponents of the financial transaction tax, including the U.K., Sweden, the Netherlands, and many other EU members, believe the tax will slow economic growth in Europe, even if just confined to ten countries. A treasury official for the U.K. said the tax could negatively impact the EU’s “real economy” (manufacturing and service production). Many financial transactions are made through pension accounts held by manufacturing companies, and imposing financial transaction taxes on these manufacturers could lower their profitability, which in turn could lower their demand for new workers. Matthew Fell, the Director for Competitive Markets at the Confederation of British Industry, believes a tax on financial transactions could also slow economic growth by making it more expensive for businesses to raise money through the issuance of new debt and equity shares to investors. Businesses typically rely on these share sales to fund their expansions and growth.<br /><br />
Other opponents of the transaction tax, including banks and financial lobbyists, believe the tax will drive financial transactions out of the ten countries covered by the plan and into untaxed financial centers. The European Commission has downplayed this notion by arguing that the tax would apply to both parties in a transaction. For example, an American bank purchasing shares of a German investment fund would still need to pay the tax even if the trade was made in New York, an untaxed financial center. In responding to this argument, a deputy director for the Bank of Italy recently told the Italian parliament it would be easy for the bank to avoid paying the tax by simply moving its investment trading operations to another country. The Swedish government agreed with that assessment based on its experience attempting a similar tax in the 1980s, which ultimately resulted in the loss of transaction activity to other untaxed financial centers.<br /><br />
Although the financial transaction tax proposal would only take effect in ten countries, it still must be approved by a majority of all the EU nations and the European Parliament. Given the small minority of countries supporting this plan, its passage is far from certain. A similar proposal by the European Commission for an EU-wide transaction tax was soundly rejected by a wide majority of EU members last year. However, it is unclear if that majority will block the current proposal due to the economic boost it could provide to countries not enacting the tax. For example, the U.K. soundly rejected last year’s proposal for a transaction tax within its borders and questioned the wisdom of the current proposal, but said it would not block the current proposal’s passage. This support is likely due to the fact that London, as one of the top financial centers in the world, would benefit greatly from an influx of transaction activity seeking to avoid taxation.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-42832098771823089782012-11-07T20:02:00.000-06:002012-11-07T20:33:39.368-06:00The Role of Foreign Investment in Mongolia’s Mining IndustryAspire Mining: <a href="http://www.aspiremininglimited.com/userfiles">Update on Mongolia Foreign Investment Law</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/39c9df5a-f698-11e1-9fff-00144feabdc0.html#axzz26mFtCL00">Chalco—Mongolia’s Angst Attack</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3215c23a-a98e-11e1-9972-00144feabdc0.html#axzz26tH5qCTE">Mongolia Open to Talks on Investment Law</a><br />
MarketWatch: <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mongolia-tavan-tolgoi-ipo-likely-in-2013-banker-2012-06-19">Mongolia Tavan Tolgoi IPO likely in 2013: Banker</a><br />
NPR: <a href="http://www.npr.org/2012/05/21/152683549/mineral-rich-mongolia-rapidly-becoming-minegolia">Mineral-Rich Mongolia Rapidly Becoming ‘Mine-golia’</a><br />
NYT: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/27/world/asia/mongolias-coal-deposits-draw-neighbors-attention.html?pagewanted=all">In Mongolia, a New, Penned-In Wealth</a><br />
Reuters: <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/18/mongolia-mining-idUKL4E8GI3HV20120518">Mongolia Passes Watered-Down Foreign Investment Law</a><br />
WB: <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/02/28/mongolia-quarterly-economic-update-february-2012">Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update – February 2012</a><br />
WB: <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/04/17/poverty-level-estimated-at-nearly-30-percent-in-mongolia">Poverty Level Estimated at 29.8 Percent in Mongolia</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444914904577622801134113324.html">Chalco Bid for SouthGobi in Peril</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/09/06/geography-rules-why-mongolias-china-mining-strategy-is-a-mistake/?KEYWORDS=mongolia">Geography Rules: Why Mongolia’s China Mining Strategy is a Mistake</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303879604577410162356263678.html?KEYWORDS=mongolian+coal+reserves">Mongolia Sets Plan to Cap Investments</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2011/12/13/rios-timely-antidote-to-poison-pill/?KEYWORDS=Oyu+Tolgoi">Rio’s Timely Antidote to Poison Pill</a><br />
<br />
Mongolia has a vast amount of underdeveloped natural resources, including coal, copper and gold. Although these resources will likely be the driving force behind Mongolia’s economic growth for the foreseeable future, foreign investment is necessary to take advantage of this natural wealth. Nevertheless, Mongolians worry about the possibility of foreign exploitation, which led the government to pass a new foreign investment law limiting the ownership equity that foreign investors can hold in Mongolian companies within strategic industries. However, investors have become uncertain about the state of Mongolia’s business environment because of the foreign investment law, which is exemplified by the Aluminum Corporation of China’s (Chalco) decision not to proceed with its planned acquisition of SouthGobi resources, a coal mining company based in Mongolia.<br />
<br />
Mongolia’s untapped natural resources could make the country’s citizenry economically better off if they were able to share in the profits of the mining industry. Mongolia is home to 10% of the world’s coal reserves, as well as the largest underdeveloped copper mine in the world. Analysts estimate that Mongolia’s resources are worth more than $2.75 trillion, while Mongolia’s population is only about 2.8 million. Moreover, the construction and exports from mining projects thus far have caused Mongolia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 17.3% in 2011, a drastic increase from only 6.4% GDP in 2010.<br />
<br />
As of yet, however, the average Mongolian citizen has seen very little benefit from the development of the country’s natural resources. About 29.8% of the population still lives in poverty, and stories abound of mining projects that leave behind ruined pastures or lead farmers to abandon their livestock to work in the mines. Many Mongolians are upset that foreign investors receive the majority of the financial benefits from projects such as Oyu Tolgoi, one of the largest copper and gold deposits in the world. Ivanhoe Mines of Canada owns a 66% stake in Oyu Tolgoi, while the Mongolian government owns the remaining 34%. Thus, Mongolia will receive less than 50% of the profits from mining its own natural resources when the mine is operational next year. On the other hand, Mongolia would likely not have had the $4 billion necessary to invest in the mine because the country’s GDP last year was only $8 billion.<br />
<br />
To correct the wealth distribution problem, the Mongolian government has promised to give every Mongolian a share in the multi-billion dollar initial public offering of a state owned enterprise that runs part of the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit. The government has also passed a law that limits foreign investment in “strategic” industries such as mining, finance, media, and telecommunications. Pursuant to this law, foreign investors must now register with the Foreign Investment Agency of Mongolia (FIA) after they acquire more than 5% of an enterprise that operates in a strategic industry. Foreign investors must also obtain government approval to acquire more than 33% and parliamentary approval for acquiring more than 49% of enterprises in these key sectors. However, foreign investments only trigger the approval process if they are worth at least $75 million or if a foreign state-owned enterprise is involved.<br />
<br />
The foreign investment law may have negative consequences for future foreign investment in Mongolia. For example, Chalco announced on September 4, 2012 that it had abandoned its plans to purchase a controlling interest in SouthGobi Resources, an investment that was worth about $920 million. Chalco announced the initial deal in April of this year, just one month before the government passed the foreign investment law. Many analysts believe that the government passed the law because of concerns about further Chinese involvement in Mongolia’s economy. Mongolia is dependent upon China both for export transit and as a market for these exports. China currently purchases 80% of all coal produced by Mongolia for 30% less than global prices. Thus, the investment law and its timing may create an uncertain business environment that discourages foreign investment and hinders Mongolia’s potential economic growth and development. The key for foreign investors going forward is to create ownership structures for projects in strategic sectors that are acceptable to the government. <br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-10405488063803762982012-10-26T02:42:00.000-05:002012-10-26T09:37:27.845-05:00Polish Government Continues to Privatize State-Owned Businesses to Reduce Budget Deficits and Strengthen EconomyBloomberg: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-04/poland-lowers-2013-growth-forecast-amid-euro-debt-crisis">Poland to Overshoot Deficit Target as Economy Slows</a> <br />
BNE: <a href="http://www.bne.eu/story4027/Poland_mulls_selling_JSW_stake_to_hit_privatisation_target">Poland Mulls Selling JSW Stake to Hit Privatisation Target</a><br />
FT: Privatisation: <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/398ba1d2-95e9-11e1-9d9d-00144feab49a.html">State Takes Strategic Approach to Sell-offs</a><br />
Warsaw Business Journal: <a href="http://www.wbj.pl/article-60272-treasury-reveals-plan-to-hit-2012-privatization-target.html">Treasury Reveals Plan to Hit 2012 Privatization Target</a> <br />
Warsaw Business Journal: <a href="http://www.wbj.pl/article-60255-treasury-expects-zl5-billion-from-privatization-in-2013.html?typ=pam">Treasury Expects zł.5 billion from Privatization in 2013</a> <br />
Warsaw Voice: <a href="http://www.warsawvoice.pl/WVpage/pages/article.php/22317/news">Privatization Plan for this Year is Feasible - Treasury Minister</a> <br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444900304577578793034668480.html?mod=djemNewEuropeBlog_h">Poland Steers Small Firms Private</a> <br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120209-706833.html">Poland to Privatize via Public Offerings, Book Buildings</a> <br />
<br />
The Polish government, as part of its 2012-2013 privatization program, is planning to sell over 300 large and small state-owned companies to reduce the federal budget deficit and strengthen its economy. The Polish government owned all of Poland’s means of production when the state was a communist nation between 1945 and 1989. However, Polish government officials have been attempting to privatize the country’s businesses since the country moved from a communist economic system to a market economy. Privatization activity increased in 2007 when the center-right Civic Platform party came to power. The Civic Platform’s last privatization program ran from 2008 to 2011 and raised almost 44 billion zlotys (Poland’s currency) from asset sales. The party instituted its current privatization plan in April 2012 with the goal of raising an additional 10 billion zlotys from sales by the end of the year, and an additional 5 billion zlotys throughout 2013.<br />
<br />
The central component of Poland’s privatization program involves selling stakes in large state-owned blue-chip (nationally known and reliable) businesses through stock offerings—sales of fractional ownership shares to private investors. Sales of these companies are driven by the Polish government’s need for revenue to reduce the country’s budget deficit. Poland’s Finance Ministry expects the country’s deficit to total 35 billion zlotys in 2012 and 35.6 billion zlotys in 2013. Although the government would like to maximize the funds from its asset sales to reduce this deficit, it has chosen to sell only partial stakes in many large companies that it views as vital to national interests. For example, Poland was able to raise 5.5 billion zlotys earlier this year by selling a 7% stake in PGE, a power generation company, and a 15.8% stake in PKO, Poland’s largest insurer. This allowed Poland to raise a substantial portion of its 10 billion zloty target for 2012, while retaining control over two companies operating in important industries.<br />
<br />
Another part of Poland’s privatization program involves selling 100% ownership stakes in smaller businesses to private investors. While revenue from these sales ultimately helps the government reduce its deficit, the primary motivation behind them is to improve the competiveness of Poland’s small businesses. Many of these small, non-strategic, state-owned companies are unprofitable or poorly managed. The government has hesitated to shut them down outright because they can employ hundreds of Polish workers. Instead, the government sells the companies to new private owners in the hopes that these owners will invest additional capital in the businesses and improve the efficiency of their operations. For example, in August 2011 Poland sold an unprofitable match factory employing 300 workers to a German corporation for approximately 13 million zlotys. Although the German company cut 50 jobs at the factory, it also invested in new technologies and made the factory profitable within one year. Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, believes sales like this will make Poland’s businesses more competitive and ultimately keep the Polish economy growing.<br />
<br />
As of September 2012, the Polish government had already raised 8 billion zlotys from sales of state-owned companies. Despite recent problems finding investors for large oil refineries and power generators, Poland’s Treasury Minister, Mikolaj Budzanowski, believes the country will meet its privatization target for the year. He expects the remaining 2 billion zlotys in asset sales to primarily come from an IPO (initial public offering of stock) of a 50% ownership stake in ZE PAK, a power complex, and PHN, a portfolio of government owned real estate. Budzanoski also plans to raise several hundred million zlotys from the sale of smaller companies, including an animal-breeding station, some health spas, an animation studio, and a pottery manufacturer. In 2013, the Treasury Ministry hopes to raise an additional 5 billion zlotys through the privatization of state-owned financial and chemical companies. The timely completion of these asset sales will help Poland reduce budget deficits in the short run through increased revenues, and grow its economy in the long run through a more competitive private sector.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-68736625570138324942012-10-15T15:03:00.000-05:002012-10-15T15:42:24.530-05:00Rwandan Government Uses Ecological Diversity to Energize Electricity Production<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">AA: </span><a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201208130198.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Geothermal Drilling Begins in December</span></a><!--[if !supportNestedAnchors]--><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336876720"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336879857"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336873329"></a><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">AA: </span><a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201202170166.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Contourglobal Wins Award for Kivuwatt Project</span></a><!--[if !supportNestedAnchors]--><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336879821"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336876858"></a><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">AA: </span><a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201209180532.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Turkish Investor to Double Power Output</span></a><!--[if !supportNestedAnchors]--><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336876804"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336876805"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336872812"></a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336872813"></a><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">AfDB: </span><a href="http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Environmental-and-Social-Assessments/EX%20summary%20ESIA%20KIVUWATT%20may%2026th%202010%20English.pdf"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">KivuWatt ESIA Summary</span></a><!--[if !supportNestedAnchors]--><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=16438495" name="_Hlt336876667"></a><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">BBC: </span><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16394635"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">Lake Kivu gas: Turning an Explosion Risk into a Power Source</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Bloomberg: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/rwanda-aims-to-boost-power-capacity-by-as-much-as-1-000mw.html">Rwanda Aims to Boost Electricity
Capacity by as Much as
1,000 Megawatts</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ContourGlobal: </span><a href="http://www.contourglobal.com/portfolio/?id=11"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">KivuWatt</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">RDB: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://rdb.rw/investinrwandaenergy/energy/Energy_Brochure_2012_final.pdf">Energy Brochure 2012</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In 2011,
Rwanda enacted a plan to generate more electricity at cheaper prices by
diversifying its production methods to include domestic sources of power.
Currently, Rwanda produces approximately 85 MW (megawatts) of electricity—40% of
which originates from expensive imported diesel fuel and 59% from geothermal
sources. As a result of Rwanda’s reliance on imported diesel, the price of
electricity in Rwanda is expensive at 22 cents/kwh (kilowatt hour), compared to
neighboring countries Burundi and Uganda at 8.19 and 11.22 cents/kwh,
respectively. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Rwanda
plans to expand its power generation to 1000MW by 2017 by utilizing inexpensive domestic biomass, methane, geothermal, and hydropower sources. Dry
peat (biomass composed of an accumulation of partially decayed vegetation) is a
valuable natural resource for Rwanda. A Turkish investor, Hakan Mining and
Generation Industry and Trade Inc.is building a 100MW peat power plant. The
plant will be built along Rwanda’s southern border in Akanyaru with the goal of
producing power in 3-5 years. Rwanda has enough peat to fuel that plant for
approximately a hundred years if it maintains a 100MW capacity. Rwanda is also investing
in a unique power plant which burns methane gas harvested from the explosive
waters of Lake Kivu. The Lake Kivu project is expected to produce 100MW of
power by 2014. Also, Rwanda’s nascent geothermal resources on the southern
slopes of the Karisimbi volcano could generate up to 700MW of power, once they
are developed in December, 2012. Last but not least, Rwanda is partnering with
Burundi and Tanzania to build four regional hydro-electric plants that will
generate 174MW of electricity for the Rwandan people. These domestic sources of
power will produce electricity that is considerably less expensive than the
diesel fuel that Rwanda currently uses.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Rwanda’s
natural resources present opportunities to reduce the price of electricity by
reducing the cost of generating it, but the goal to increase power supply from
100MW to 1000MW will be difficult to achieve in five years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-66043963072568677842012-10-12T09:57:00.003-05:002012-10-12T09:57:24.643-05:00Mexico’s Labor Reforms Spark Controversy
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IAG: <a href="http://interamerican-group.com/Update_old.htm"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Calderón’s Challenges</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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IBT: <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/mexican-congress-strikes-down-effort-make-unions-more-transparent-796033"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Mexican Congress Strikes Down
Effort To Make Unions More Transparent</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/28/us-mexico-reform-idUSBRE88R1K520120928"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Mexico Lower House Approves
Diluted Labor Reform</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/27/us-mexico-reform-idUSBRE88Q02A20120927"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Weakened Labor Reform Clears
First Hurdle in Mexican Congress</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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WP: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/mexico-labor-reform-seeks-to-loosen-hiring-union-secrecy-workers-say-they-will-be-the-losers/2012/09/25/58fa4d54-06d5-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_story_1.html"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Mexico
Labor Reform Seeks To Loosen Hiring, Union Secrecy; Workers Say They Will Be
the Losers</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443389604578025362219862212.html?mod=googlenews_wsj"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">Mexico House Passes Labor
Reform After Decades of Stalemate</span></a></div>
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After about two decades of debate, Mexico’s lower house of
Congress passed the first major labor reform since the 1970s. Mexico’s Congress
designed these reforms to update Mexico’s labor laws to match the modernization
of Mexico’s economy, which has transformed from an agricultural-based economy
to a manufacturing and service-based economy. In particular, these reforms make
it easier for firms to hire and fire employees, change employee wages from a
daily rate to an hourly rate, create new temporary employment plans that
require no compensation when they expire, and regulate firms’ outsourcing
practices. Despite a clear House majority in favor of these particular reforms
(351 votes in favor versus 130 votes against), Mexico’s labor reforms sparked
controversy among differing groups.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Proponents—led by two large political parties, the Institutional
Revolutionary Party and the National Action Party—argue that the reforms offer
a number of benefits. First, Mexico will be more competitive because reforms
like hourly wages and ease of hiring/firing will make labor cheaper and more
flexible for employers compared to labor in other nations. This will provide incentives
for employers to use Mexican labor, thus leading to increased job growth, the second
benefit. Mexican President Felipe Calderón
estimated that these reforms would create 400,000 new jobs per year and would lower
Mexico’s current 5.4% unemployment rate. President Calderón also commented that
the improvement of part-time work opportunities, which would arise because of
reforms like the new temporary employment plan, gives those that struggle to
break into the labor market—particularly women and the youth—a better
opportunity to do so. Third, due to Mexico’s potential increased
competitiveness and attractiveness to employers, Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development (OECD) Secretary Angel Gurria predicts that these
reforms would increase Mexico’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) by 1%. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Despite these perceived benefits, opponents of Mexico’s new
labor reforms—led by the more liberal Party of Democratic Revolution—argue that
these reforms attack workers’ rights, lower their wages, and diminish their job
security without improving Mexico’s competitiveness. The thrust of these
opponents' argument is that Mexico’s labor laws are not the reason for the country’s
lack of competitiveness because Mexico’s labor is already inexpensive and attractive
compared to other countries with increasing labor costs—such as China. Rather, Mexico’s
lack of competitiveness stems from the country’s other problems, which include
drug violence, extortion, and freight robbing. Opponents argue that if Congress
wants to increase Mexico’s competitiveness, it should focus its efforts on
these problems. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Before these labor reforms become law, Mexico’s Senate must
pass them in October. Because many Mexican lawmakers perceive this as a mere
formality, the reforms as passed by the lower House likely represent the final changes
to Mexico’s out-of-date labor laws. Nonetheless, the controversy will continue
as the debate as to the efficacy of these changes is yet to be resolved.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-29376849787141855272012-10-07T22:27:00.000-05:002012-10-07T22:27:22.712-05:00Europe Attempts to Avoid Negative Long-Term Consequences of High Youth Employment Rates<a href="http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=7276&langId=en">European Commission: Youth Opportunities Initiative</a> <br /><a href="http://euobserver.com/social/117390">Euro Observer: Youth Unemployment Risks 'Social Disaster'</a> <br />
<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/as-youth-unemployment-soars-france-wants-to-pay-most-of-the-salaries-for-100000-young-people/2012/08/29/6199a734-f1d1-11e1-b74c-84ed55e0300b_story.html">WP: As Youth Unemployment Soars, France Offers to Let Companies Hire Young People on its Dime </a><br />
<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/unemployment-rate-remainsabove-11-percent-in-euro-zone/2012/08/31/1ed07c3a-f3b0-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_story.html">WP: Unemployment Rate Remains Above 11 Percent in Euro Zone</a><br />
<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444301704577631391024255180.html?mod=djemeeurope_h">WSJ: In Europe, Signs of a Jobless Generation</a><br />
<br />
Out of concern for the long-term negative consequences related to youth unemployment, the European Union (EU), along with member state governments and a consortium of private businesses have adopted plans to put young people to work in Europe. In July 2012, the unemployment rate in the EU reached 11.3%, signifying 18 million Europeans were out of work. This was the highest level of unemployment in the EU since the euro was adopted in 1999. European companies have hesitated to invest and hire new workers due to weak consumer spending, triggered in part by government payrolls cuts, higher taxes, and volatility in the financial markets. European companies have also hesitated to expand their work forces because strict European labor laws make it difficult to lay off workers during tough economic times.<br /><br />While the overall unemployment rate in the EU is high, its youth unemployment rate is even higher. In July 2012, the unemployment rate for workers under the age of 24 reached 22.5%, up from an already high 21.3% one year earlier. However, this increase was not uniform across the EU. The youth unemployment rate actually decreased in ten EU member states during July and increased greatly in several countries located in Europe’s economic periphery, including Greece and Spain. During July, the youth unemployment rate reached 53.8% in Greece and 52.9% in Spain, the highest levels in the EU. <br /><br />A prolonged high youth unemployment rate has many long-term negative consequences for workers and businesses. A person’s job skills and work experience begin to fade rapidly after about six months of unemployment. This means that the longer a person is unemployed, the harder it becomes for that person to find a permanent job at a competitive wage. The EU’s challenging labor markets have already forced many out of work youth to accept part-time and temporary jobs for low wages. However, the International Labor Organization (ILO) believes that if a person accepts such work early in his or her career, that person will have a more difficult time finding permanent employment with proper advancement opportunities later on. The negative impact from working in these low-level positions can hamper a person’s career for up to 15 years according to Ekkehard Ernst, Chief of the ILO Employment Trends Unit. Businesses can also be hurt by sustained youth unemployment in the long run. As unemployed youth move abroad in search of better job opportunities, companies in countries with high youth unemployment rates will eventually be unable to find qualified workers to fill vacancies.<br /><br />To prevent these long-term negative consequences, the EU, a group of private businesses, and several member states have adopted plans to put people to work. The EU already contributed €3 billion to education and apprenticeship programs designed to reduce youth unemployment in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovakia, and Spain. The EU also recently proposed a Youth Guarantee program, which would help young people find employment or training opportunities within a few months of losing their jobs. Private businesses are also trying to reduce youth unemployment. A task force at the Business-20 Summit, a gathering of global business leaders, called for companies to increase their apprenticeships and internships by 20% over the next year in order to put young people to work. Several companies have already responded. For example, Starbucks recently launched a twelve-month apprenticeship program in the U.K. Finally, individual governments are trying to reduce youth unemployment within their borders. For instance, the Italian and Spanish governments have proposed tax breaks for businesses that hire young workers. In addition, the French government recently proposed to pay up to 75% of the salaries for young workers hired by private companies during the first three years of their employment. France hopes the plan will put 150,000 new young people to work over the next two years.<br /><br />Despite the best efforts of the EU, private businesses, and individual member states, youth unemployment is likely to continue to be a problem in Europe going forward. Due to the continuing problems associated with the European financial crisis, the ILO forecasts that over the next five years the youth unemployment rate in the EU will decrease only slightly to 21.4% from 22.4% today. Such a prolonged period of youth unemployment could produce a “lost generation” of young workers who suffer long-term career setbacks. It could also negatively impact long-term business productivity and competitiveness in the countries experiencing the highest rates of youth unemployment today. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-28956141369761159542012-10-06T20:29:00.001-05:002012-10-06T20:29:21.379-05:00The U.S. “Fiscal Cliff” and Its Threat to the Domestic Economy
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Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-09/u-s-fiscal-cliff-endangers-world-economy-lagarde-tells-apec.html"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">U.S.
Fiscal Cliff Endangers World Economy, Lagarde Tells APEC</span></a> <o:p></o:p></div>
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BusinessWeek: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-09-13/face-it-2013-is-gonna-be-a-bummer"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Face It: 2013 Is Gonna Be a
Bummer</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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CBO: <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43544"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Fiscal Tightening in 2013 and Its Economic
Consequences - Infographic</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Reuters: <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/usa-obama-budget-idINL1E8KDCPL20120913"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">U.S. Recovery at Risk From
Fiscal Cliff-Bernanke</span></a> <o:p></o:p></div>
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WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443524904577651743806000520.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5"><span style="color: #6fa8dc;">Federal Budget Cuts Detailed</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Fiscal deficits have gained recent worldwide
attention—mainly due to the struggles in the European Union—and rightly so, as
deficits restrict governments’ ability to use spending and tax policies to
respond to economic crises, as well as pose challenges to economic growth since
deficits raise interest rates and discourage investment. To address the fiscal
deficit in the United States—which has run above $1 trillion for the past 4
years, or approximately 8% of annual gross domestic product (GDP)—the White
House and Congress plan to cut government spending and increase taxes at the
start of 2013. However, this plan—popularly known as the “fiscal cliff”—poses grave
concerns for the domestic economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The first half of the “fiscal cliff”—spending
cuts—originates from an agreement between the White House and Congress to cut $1.2
trillion from the federal deficit between 2013 and 2021. In 2013 alone, the
government would cut about $109 billion. About half of the planned spending
cuts would come from the U.S. defense operations, such as army expenses and
navy aircraft. Other top sources of spending cuts include the National Park
Service, salaries to employees of the Securities Exchange Commission, salaries
of food-safety workers, rural rental assistance, and health-care exchanges. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The second half of the “fiscal cliff”—tax increases—arises
because the Bush-era tax cuts (temporary tax cuts that applied to every tax
bracket when President Bush was in office) expire at the end of 2012. If
Congress does not extend these tax cuts, tax rates will return to higher pre-Bush-era
levels, which are approximately 3% higher for most income levels. Observers are
uncertain as to how this issue will be resolved because of the November 2012
presidential election. Democratic candidate President Obama wants to extend tax
cuts for Americans making under $250,000, while Republican candidate Mitt
Romney wants to extend tax cuts for <i>all</i>
Americans. Moreover, since the new president will be sworn into office at the
beginning of 2013, the new president will have little to no time to address both
the spending cut and the tax rate issues.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The “fiscal cliff” threatens the U.S. economy because it
would trigger another significant recession and wipe out approximately 2
million jobs. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan
analyst for the U.S. Congress, the “fiscal cliff” would cut almost four
percentage points off the U.S. growth rate in 2013, leading to a 0.5%
contraction in the economy, and would also increase the unemployment rate to
9.1%. Moreover, the Federal Reserve—the central banking system of the
U.S.—warned that if the “fiscal cliff” throws the U.S. economy into another
recession, the Federal Reserve might not have sufficient tools to offset the
fiscal shock. Therefore, to avoid the threat of a significant recession, the
Federal Reserve recommended that the White House and Congress create an
alternative fiscal plan to prohibit spending cuts and maintain the lower tax
rates. The CBO predicted that this alternative fiscal plan, unlike the “fiscal
cliff,” would allow the U.S. economy to continue to grow—1.7% growth rate in
2013—and to maintain a lower unemployment rate—8.0% in 2013.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The “fiscal cliff” is not only a threat to the U.S. domestic
economy, but also one of the top risks to the global economy. Due to the United
States’ significant global economic presence, the potential U.S. recession could
have a global impact, as it could disrupt other economies and adversely affect
investors’ confidence levels in financial markets. This would, in turn, plunge
the United States into an even deeper recession.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-10880540988145991482012-10-02T09:04:00.001-05:002012-10-03T10:16:41.255-05:00Egypt Approaches America for Aid and Investment Package<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Ahram Online: <a href="http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/50405/Business/Economy/Egypts-unemployment-rate-hits-record-high-in-secon.aspx" target="_blank"><span style="color: #45818e;">Egypt’s Unemployment Rate Hits Record High in Second Quarter</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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CIA Factbook: <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html?countryName=Egypt&countryCode=eg&regionCode=afr&rank=136#eg" target="_blank"><span style="color: #45818e;">Egypt</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Forex: <a href="http://www.forexpros.com/indices/egx30-historical-data" target="_blank"><span style="color: #45818e;">Historical Data</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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The Guardian: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/04/egypt-1bn-us-debt-deal" target="_blank"><span style="color: #45818e;">Egypt Closes in on $1bn US Debt Deal</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
New York Times: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/world/middleeast/us-prepares-economic-aid-to-bolster-democracy-in-egypt.html?pagewanted=all" target="_blank"><span style="color: #45818e;">To Back Democracy, U.S. Prepares to Cut $1 Billion From Egypt’s Debt</span></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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Almost sixteen months after pledging to help Egypt’s
faltering economy, the United States (U.S.) is nearing an agreement to forgive
$1 billion dollars Egypt owes to the U.S., and to pledge $435 million for
investment in Egypt. The Egyptian economy has been in decline since the ouster
of long time President Hosni Mubarak in February 2012, and the new President,
Mohamed Mursi is working to improve Egypt’s economic outlook by reducing
government debt and increasing investment.</div>
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<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">If the U.S. forgives $1 billion of
the $3 billion Egypt currently owes the U.S., it will support the Egyptian economy
in two ways. First, it will reduce the amount of cash that Egypt has to use to
pay down government debt, and will allow Egypt to spend more money to stimulate
its economy. Second, the Egyptian government is less likely to have to raise
taxes on its population to pay down government debt, which leaves more money
for taxpayers to spend in the economy. As of 2011, Egypt’s gross domestic
product (GDP) per capita </span><span style="background-color: white; text-indent: 0.5in;"> (indicator of standard of living) was 136<sup>th</sup>
in the world, leaving each person with $6,600 to spend per year. The more money
that citizens have, the more they are able to spend and stimulate the economy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">The United States has also offered
$375 million in financing to American companies that invest in Egypt, and a $60
million investment fund for Egyptians to invest in new businesses. In an effort
to entice American companies to utilize the $375 million fund, the U.S. Chamber
of Commerce is bringing executives from almost fifty large American companies </span>to Egypt<span class="MsoCommentReference" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></span><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">.
The United States and Egypt intend the</span><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; text-indent: 0.5in;"> $375
million foreign and $60 million domestic investment funds to help reduce
Egypt’s 12.6% unemployment rate, create sources of income for Egyptian citizens,
and increase the amount of taxes the government can collect because of the
increase in business. Egypt needs an increase in investment to stabilize its economy.</span></div>
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<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">Although the Egyptian stock market
showed gains during the week of September 4</span><sup style="text-indent: 0.5in;">th</sup><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">, the country still has
a long way to go to reach financial stability. The Egyptian stock index (EGX 30)
hit a 15-month high on September 4</span><sup style="text-indent: 0.5in;">th</sup><span style="text-indent: 0.5in;">, showing that the market may be
responding to Mursi’s effort, but the EGX 30 still sits 30 percent below its
high in 2010.The Egyptian government is mired in debt and lacking investment.
With support from foreign governments and internal economic growth, Egypt has a
good opportunity to grow a stable economy. America looks to be invested in the
recovery process; American Deputy Secretary of State Thomas Nides said that the
aid is “not just about assistance,” it is about “growth and business.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-23309617267531180272012-09-26T02:03:00.000-05:002012-09-26T02:03:47.874-05:00Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-24/brics-biggest-currency-depreciation-since-1998-to-worsen.html">BRICs Biggest Currency Depreciation Since 1998 To Worsen</a><br />
CNNMoney: <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/24/news/economy/china_real_estate/index.htm">Will China’s Real Estate Bubble Burst?</a> <br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/77c8fd0a-f255-11e1-bba3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25TWBUHtZ">China Manufacturers Face Fall in Demand</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/57946cfc-f400-11e1-9921-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25TWBUHtZ">Chinese Manufacturing Hits Nine-Month Low</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4e8e7bb4-bc2b-11e1-a836-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25TWBUHtZ">China Moves to Lift Property Market</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/31592d8c-d08a-11e1-bcaa-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25TWBUHtZ">Chinese Property Market Rebounds</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8b198ae2-8b9e-11e0-a725-00144feab49a.html#axzz25TWBUHtZ">Fate of China Property is Global Concern</a><br />
HSBC: <a href="http://www.hsbc.com/1/PA_esf-ca-app-content/content/assets/emi/2012/cn_manufacturing_eng_1209_pr.pdf">HSBC China Manufacturing PMI</a><br />
National Bureau of Statistics of China: <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/was40/gjtjj_en_detail.jsp?searchword=housing+prices&channelid=9528&record=2">Sales Prices of Residential Buildings in 70 Medium and Large-sized cities in July</a><br />
Reuters: <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/03/us-china-economy-pmi-idINBRE88107F20120903">China Factor Surveys Signal Economic Growth Easing into Q3</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304299704577504373723664482.html">Murky Outlook for Dim Sum Market</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303612804577528873250642842.html">Wage Rises in China May Ease Slowdown</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444082904577606803059036174.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_markets">Yuan is Luring Bets of a Drop<br />
</a><br />
<br />
China’s Economy Shows Signs of Strain<br />
<br />
Recent economic indicators show that China’s economic growth was much slower than expected in the first half of this year, and analysts predict that gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow again next quarter to somewhere below 7.5%—GDP grew 7.6% in the second quarter. Two important issues affecting the Chinese economy are: (1) increased government restrictions in the housing industry, and (2) decreased demand for Chinese products. These relatively poor economic numbers have led the Chinese government to engage in economic stimulus measures such as interest rate cuts and increased spending on investment projects.<br />
<br />
<br />
Concerns about a housing bubble (rapid increase in housing prices) in China’s developed cities have led the government to clamp down on the housing sector by prohibiting purchases of second homes, toughening mortgage qualifications, imposing residency restrictions, and increasing down payments on property. The housing market in China’s most developed cities, where housing prices are high, accounts for only 25% of the market as a whole. In the rest of the country (the other 75% of the market), however, housing prices are relatively affordable. Yet, government policies designed to correct housing prices in China’s largest cities are discouraging developers from building houses in the rest of the country because the policies lower developers’ profit margins, particularly in rural areas. Moreover, people are discouraged from buying homes due to purchasing restrictions, and many investors do not want to purchase new real estate when property values are on the decline. Decreases in home construction and sales hurt the Chinese economy because property construction accounts for 15% of China’s GDP, and about 10% of economic growth last year is directly attributable to the housing sector. Furthermore, reduction in property construction has a domino effect upon other industries, including steel, heavy machinery manufacturers, and the energy sector.<br />
<br />
China’s manufacturing sector already faces tough challenges because demand for Chinese products is decreasing. In the first half of the year, wages for Chinese workers went up 13% from last year, and analysts expect wages to double by 2015 from 2011 levels and triple by 2017. Companies must increase the prices of their products to account for these wage increases. Consequently, many foreign consumers now order these goods from other Asian countries where wages and prices are lower. For example, Euro zone, American and Russian demand for Chinese exports dropped 30% this year. HSBC’s purchasing manager’s index (PMI) (number that is calculated based on purchasing executives’ responses to questionnaires regarding new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times, and stock of items purchased) for China’s manufacturing sector was posted at 47.6 in August, its lowest level since March 2009, and down from 49.3 in July. Any number below 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is contracting. HSBC also reported that new orders for goods had declined along with the number of manufacturing jobs. If low demand for Chinese products continues, many more Chinese workers will lose their jobs, which could strain China’s domestic market because these workers will purchase fewer goods.<br />
<br />
The Chinese government is introducing various policies to help address the problems in the housing and manufacturing sectors. To help the housing sector, the government has been subsidizing the construction of millions of apartments. However, somewhere between ten and sixty-five million apartments remain empty due to the government’s purchasing restrictions. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has also promised to give exporters a tax rebate to help ease the pressure on the manufacturing industry. Furthermore, the government has cut interest rates twice this year, approved numerous investment projects, and lowered the amount of money that Chinese banks must keep on hand. Such measures should encourage lending and development projects. Many analysts also predict that the Chinese government will employ monetary easing policies such as lowering interest rates on loans even further and increasing the money supply. This will make Chinese exports more affordable on the world market because the value of the yuan against foreign currencies will decrease. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-24685611663402532682012-09-19T20:24:00.000-05:002012-09-19T20:24:33.077-05:00Fiscally Cautious Countries Hesitate to Join Eurozone Amid Fears of Future BailoutsBloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-31/bulgaria-s-stability-will-attract-investment-barroso-says-1-.html">Bulgaria’s Stability Will Attract Investment, Barroso Says</a> <br />
Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-28/lithuania-to-adopt-euro-when-europe-is-ready-kubilius-says.html">Lithuania to Adopt Euro when Europe is Ready, Kubilius Says</a><br />
European Commission: <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/index_en.htm">Enlargement Website</a> <br />
European Commission: <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm">Economic and Financial Affairs Website</a> <br />WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443847404577631063612690428.html">Bulgaria’s Lesson for Euro-Skeptics</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443759504577629323056333022.html?mod=djemeeurope_h">Bulgaria Shelves Plan to Join Ailing Euro Bloc</a> <br /><br />Fiscally cautious European Union (EU) member countries, including Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia, have recently postponed plans to adopt the euro as their official currency due to concerns over future bailouts for weaker members. There are 27 member countries in the EU, 17 of which have adopted the euro (the Eurozone). The remaining ten countries, with the exception of the United Kingdom (U.K.) and Denmark (who both “opted-out” of the euro), are expected to replace their national currencies with the euro when their economies meet the Eurozone’s entrance criteria. This criteria includes debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratios below 60%, deficit-to-GDP ratios below 3%, stable exchange rates, low consumer price inflation, and low long-term interest rates. <br /><br />However, on September 3, 2012, Bulgaria, which joined the European Union in 2007, indefinitely postponed its plans to join the Eurozone. Although the country remains one of the region’s poorest member states, its current debt-to-GDP ratio of 15.3% is one of the lowest in Europe. Although Bulgaria’s leadership anticipates meeting the criteria necessary to join the Eurozone by 2013, the government has decided to keep its own national currency (the lev) for the time being. Bulgaria’s Finance Minister, Simeon Djankov, attributes this decision to the uncertainty of future bailouts, such as those for struggling countries like Spain and Greece. Djankov commented that, “The public rightly wants to know who would we have to bail out when we join?” He went on to say that if his country joined the Eurozone, the lack of fiscal discipline among the region’s weaker members to reduce their deficits and debts could negatively impact Bulgaria’s relatively strong economic growth rate.<br /><br />Bulgaria’s announcement follows decisions made in August by the Lithuanian and Latvian governments to postpone their own plans to adopt the euro. Lithuania and Latvia, who both joined the EU in 2004, expect to meet the criteria necessary to join the Eurozone by 2014. However, Lithuania’s Prime Minister, Andrius Kubilius, stated that the country would not adopt the euro until there is a stable situation in the Eurozone and it is clear the group is ready for expansion. Similarly, Latvia’s Prime Minister, Valdis Dombrovskis, also backed away from switching to the euro in 2014. Dombrovskis attributed Latvia’s decision to the Eurozone’s failure to control member countries that choose to violate rules on budget deficits, debt, and inflation. If Eurozone countries do not bring their deficits and debts under control, the need for more bailouts would hurt fiscally conservative countries like Latvia.<br /><br />The decisions by Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia are not evidence that EU member countries find a single, common currency undesirable. Rather, the decisions reflect concern about their liability for future bailouts of weaker countries, and the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone’s resulting move toward tighter financial integration among members. Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia’s desire for a common currency is demonstrated by the fact that these countries currently tie the exchange rates of their national currencies to the euro. This allows the countries to experience many of the benefits that come from participation in the Eurozone’s monetary union, while avoiding many of the problems associated with bailouts and the loss of control over their own financial decisions.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-30440102073997014432012-09-15T16:45:00.000-05:002012-09-15T16:45:03.128-05:00Canada’s Flaherty Remains Skeptical of Global Risks Despite Positive Economic Indicators
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Bloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-31/slowing-canada-economy-may-cut-flaherty-s-fiscal-cushion.html"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Slowing
Canada Economy May Cut Flaherty’s Fiscal Cushion</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Calgary Herald: <a href="http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/pose+downward+risk+Canada+economy/7178408/story.html"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">EU,
U.S. Pose 'Downward Risk' to Canada's Economy</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/us-economy-idUSBRE87S0ID20120831"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Canada Q2 Growth Tops G7 but
Government Sees Dangers</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Vancouver Sun: <a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/business/fp/yourmoney/Federal+deficit+shrinking+Ottawa+warns+trouble+ahead/7173249/story.html"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Flaherty Not Ruling Out
Stimulus but Says Canadian Economy On Track</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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WSJ: <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2012/08/31/canadas-public-finances-still-shine-but-worries-emerge/"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Canada’s Public Finances Still
Shine, but Worries Emerge</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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On Friday, August 31, 2012, Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty
reported positive economic indicators and acknowledged global risks that
threaten the Canadian economy. Flaherty announced the country’s second-quarter
gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 1.8%, the best among the G7
countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the
United States). Statistics Canada credits business investment for this growth, which
grew by 2.3% compared to last quarter. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Flaherty also announced that the government’s budget
deficit—a negative balance between government revenues (e.g. taxes) and
government spending—is 1.14 billion Canadian dollars (C$), which is half of
last year’s C$2.26 billion budget deficit. Canada slashed its budget deficit by
increasing its tax revenues and decreasing its government spending. Tax
revenues in June 2012 increased 4.2% to C$20.49 billion compared to June 2011 due
to increases in the income tax rate and the Employment Insurance rate—a
percentage of Canadians’ earnings paid to the Employment Insurance system in
exchange for unemployment benefits. Government spending in June 2012 declined
1.3% to C$19.07 billion compared to June 2011, which was largely due to a 14%
spending cut in the defense department.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Despite an increased GDP growth rate and a decreased budget
deficit, Flaherty warned that the Canadian economy still faces the risk of an
economic downturn. Because Canada competes on a global scale, it faces risks in
the global economy. For instance, the on-going European debt crisis and the
slow expansion of emerging economies caused the prices of commodities to fall,
as investors fear that the demand for commodities will continue to decrease if
Europe and emerging economies fail to stimulate their economies. These risks
affected Canada as the prices of Canada’s commodities fell by 5.1% compared to
last year. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Flaherty reassured Canadians that if these risks create a
downturn in the economy, the government would resort to actions it took during
the 2008 financial crisis. In 2008, the government boosted spending on
infrastructure projects and decreased income tax rates to protect jobs and
encourage consumer spending. These measures helped ease the recessionary blow.
However, because the Canadian economy currently has positive growth rates and
the government is on track to meet budget projections, these measures are not
needed at this time.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-33211121236728522372012-09-12T05:57:00.000-05:002012-09-12T12:49:56.968-05:00Newly Elected Egyptian Government Requests IMF Help to Boost EconomyBBC: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19340871"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Egypt Requests $4.8bn Loan from Visiting IMF Chief</span></a><br />
Bloomberg: Egypt: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-10/egypt-current-account-deficit-widens-as-tourism-fdi-fall-1-.html"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Currency Account Deficit Widens As Tourism, FDI Fall</span></a>
<br />
Brookings: <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2012/08/24-egypt-imf-ghanem"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Egypt and the IMF: Turning a new Page?</span></a>
<br />
Business Week: <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-27/egypt-offers-3-year-t-bonds-as-brotherhood-backs-imf-loan-talks"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Egypt Offers 3-Year T-Bonds as Brotherhood Backs IMF Loan Talks</span></a><br />
Central Bank of Egypt: <a href="http://www.cbe.org.eg/treasury_bonds.htm"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Egyptian Treasury Bonds Auction</span></a><br />
Chicago Tribune: <a href="http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-08-27/news/sns-rt-us-egypt-president-economybre87q13h-20120827_1_mursi-egyptian-pound-president-rules"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Egypt’s President Rules out Currency Devaluation </span></a><br />
IMF: <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car082212a.htm"><span style="color: #76a5af;">IMF to Discuss New Loan Program With Egypt, Says Lagarde</span></a><br />
IMF: <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/egy/eng/curegy.htm#II"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Egypt International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity</span></a><br />
New York Federal Reserve: <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed38.html"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Currency Devaluation and Revaluation </span></a><br />
Reuters: <a href="http://uters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE87P03X20120826"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Yields on Egyptian 266-day T-bills Climb</span></a><br />
Swiss Info: <a href="http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Egypt_seeks_$4.8_billion_IMF_loan_for_stricken_economy.html?cid=33363742"><span style="color: #76a5af;">Egypt Seeks $4.8 billion IMF Loan for Stricken Economy</span></a><br />
<br />
On August 22, 2012, Egypt's new President Mohamed Mursi requested a $4.8 billion dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde. Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil said that he expects the $4.8 billion loan to be for a term of five years, have an interest rate of 1.1 percent, and a grace period of 39 months. The Egyptian economy has suffered in recent years due to the political unrest following the Arab Spring, and the newly elected Mursi is exploring ways to kick-start the Egyptian economy and avoid a devaluation of the Egyptian Pound.<br />
<br />
President Mursi believes the IMF loan will contribute to Egypt’s economic stability in the short term and be a signal to the world that Egypt is once again a politically and economically stable place to invest and travel. After the ouster of long time President Hosni Mubarak, foreign investors and travelers avoided Egypt because of the unpredictable financial and social climate. Foreign direct investment in Egypt (money invested by foreign businesses) fell by 90%, and travel to Egypt fell by 18% in 2011-12. Thus, the IMF loan will signal to investors that Egypt is ready to start dealing with its serious economic and political problems.<br />
<br />
The $4.8 billion loan will be a welcome infusion of cash to the faltering Egyptian economy. Egypt has spent more than half of its foreign currency reserves (funds held in international currencies by the Central Bank) to maintain the value of its currency by purchasing its own bonds, which effectively raises the value of the Egyptian Pound. So far, the currency has lost only five percent of its value on the international market despite a much larger drop in foreign investment and travel. However, if Egypt were to run out of foreign reserves and not be able to defend the value of its currency, the likely depreciation of the Pound would make key imported food staples, such as wheat, tea, and sugar, more expensive to purchase. This would likely contribute to social and political unrest.<br />
<br />
Despite Mursi’s actions to stabilize the economy, foreign investors do not yet consider Egypt to be a stable investment. Egyptian treasury bills’ interest rates are a good measure of investor sentiment because they reflect the risk of Egyptian default that investors expect. As of August 26, 2012, the interest rate on 266-day Egyptian treasury bills climbed by two tenths of a percent to 15.863 percent. By contrast, the interest rate on a one-year U.S. treasury bill is only .19 percent. The Mursi administration is hoping that the IMF loan will help address investors’ concerns by helping to quell political and social unrest and promote financial reforms.<br />
<br />
The new Egyptian President has made efforts to improve the Egyptian economy, and continues to take steps to make Egypt financially stable. However, the world market does not yet see the stability Mursi seeks. After meeting with President Mursi, the IMF’s Managing Director said that getting Egypt’s economy back on track will not be an easy task, but that that the IMF stands ready to help. An IMF mission will visit Cairo in September to hold discussions and the parties plan to reach an agreement in November.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-35847035794409681782012-09-05T21:37:00.000-05:002012-09-05T21:40:33.939-05:00Troubles With India’s Power GridThe Economist: <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21559977">An Area of Darkness</a><br />
The Economist: <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/21543138">The Future is Black</a> <br />
The Economist: <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2012/07/india%E2%80%99s-power-cuts">Powerless</a><br />
Ernst & Young: <a href="http://emergingmarkets.ey.com/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2012/03/india-attractiveness-final-version1.pdf">Ready for the Transition</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3126687c-dafb-11e1-be74-00144feab49a.html#axzz25AabC413">Fantasies of Power in Muddle-Along India</a><br />
NatGeo: <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/07/120731-india-power-outage-analysis/">Indian Power Outage Spotlights Energy Planning Failure</a><br />
NYT: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/01/world/asia/indias-power-grid-lacks-excess-capacity.html">An Electrical Grid is Pressed to Its Limit</a><br />
RBI: <a href="http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=27088">RBI Releases Annual Report for 2011–12</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444405804577560413178678898.html">India’s Power Network Breaks Down</a><br />
WSJ: <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2012/08/27/investment-in-infrastructure-is-plunging/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=irt">Investment in Infrastructure is Plunging</a><br />
<br />
On July 30 and 31 of this year, two blackouts in northern and eastern India caused more than half of the country’s population to lose power for multiple hours. Power outages of shorter duration and effect have become a daily part of Indians’ lives, and they are indicative of serious problems with India’s power supply system. India’s power grid will become a hindrance to future economic growth if India does not address the grid’s weaknesses. Underinvestment in energy infrastructure, a poor system of energy allocation, and environmental and resource constraints on India’s power supply are some of the problems with India’s power supply chain.<br />
<br />
The Indian government must invest in energy infrastructure to accommodate a modern industrialized economy that is heavily reliant upon electricity and connectivity for daily business operations. Many industries in India are struggling in part because India’s power supply chain is unreliable, outdated and non-existent in many parts of the country. Currently, 300 million people are permanently without power, and, in the areas that do have power, supply is consistently below the levels needed to keep the electricity running without interruption. For example, some villages only have electricity for four to six hours a day. The distribution of the electricity from the grid to users is also problematic because the government sets artificially low electricity prices that bankrupt state-owned firms responsible for distribution, and thus, these firms cannot afford to purchase all of the needed electricity from the power companies. Moreover, the delivery system itself needs updating to address reliability concerns, which could cost about $110 billion to accomplish, according to one study. Despite these issues, the government plans to invest only 2.1 trillion rupees (about $38 billion) this year in infrastructure, down from 3.9 trillion rupees (about $70 billion) last year.<br />
<br />
The way that India allocates energy is also flawed. States give a daily estimate to the government of how much power they expect to need the following day. The government imposes fines if states exceed the quotas calculated based on these daily forecasts, but these fines are not enough to maintain energy discipline. When demand upon the grid exceeds the available capacity, generators automatically shut down in the areas of excess demand to prevent damage to the system. Many government officials and analysts blame the power outages on the fact that some Indian states exceeded their electricity quota and triggered large numbers of generator shut downs. However, India’s power grid does not have enough capacity to tolerate much demand volatility.<br />
<br />
India’s electricity capacity has been strained by environmental and resource issues. This year’s drought negatively affected hydroelectric power generation and increased demand for electricity at the same time. Farmers have had to increase their normal electricity usage in order to hydrate their crops, and they have no incentive to conserve energy because they receive free electricity. Coal production, which state-owned Coal India controls, has also been inadequate. Thus, for power companies to keep up with demand, they have to purchase coal from foreign sources, which is more expensive than domestic coal. Low coal production has a significant effect upon the country’s power supply because about 70% of India’s power is coal generated. <br />
<br />
In its current state, India’s power grid will be unable to cope with the demand for electricity, which is likely to double by 2020. Currently, India’s plans for developing energy infrastructure depend on nuclear energy and coal. Nuclear energy is unpopular, especially in light of the nuclear disaster in Japan last year. Moreover, the most modern coal-based power plants require a higher grade of coal than that found in India. This hurts demand for domestic coal sources and creates financial difficulties for the companies investing in such modernizing projects. India must address the investment, allocation and capacity problems that are hurting the power supply chain to guarantee its ascendency to developed nation status.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-66755934553189997712012-09-05T11:35:00.000-05:002012-09-05T11:35:59.697-05:00Corporate Bond Issuances in Europe’s Economic Periphery Face ChallengesBloomberg: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-21/santander-defies-spain-woes-to-sell-first-bank-bonds-since-march.html">Santander Defies Spain Woes to Sell First Bonds Since March</a><br />
FT: <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e01a2d1c-ec5f-11e1-a91c-00144feab49a.html#axzz24s8HjHqj">Peripheral Corporates Eye Bond Sale Window</a><br />MarketWatch: <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cash-rich-mull-spanish-italian-corporate-bonds-2012-08-16">Cash-rich Mull Spanish, Italian Corporate Bonds</a><br />Reuters: <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/08/09/spanish-corporates-funding-idUKL6E8J98O720120809">Bond Comeback No Easy Feat for Spanish Corporates</a><br />Reuters: <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/10/spain-banks-idINL6E8JA88I20120810">DBRS Downgrades Spanish Banks After Sovereign Rating Cut</a><br />WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444900304577580832990912876.html">Beware a Corporate-Bond Reversal</a><br />
<br />Some corporations headquartered in Europe’s economic periphery, which includes Spain and Italy, have experienced difficulties issuing corporate bonds since the first quarter of this year. Other peripheral companies have recently been able to issue corporate bonds, but at much higher interest rates than in the past. Corporations typically issue interest-bearing bonds (bonds that periodically pay interest) to investors in exchange for money. They use this money to refinance existing debt, fund operations, or invest in growth. However, uncertainty surrounding the European sovereign debt crisis has limited investors’ demand for these types of bonds throughout much of 2012.<br /><br />Investors’ hesitation is due in part to the increased likelihood of downgrades in sovereign debt credit ratings. Countries, like Italy and Spain, issue debt to investors and private credit rating agencies, such as Moody’s and DBRS, publish ratings assessing the investment quality (risk) of that debt. They also rate the debt issued by private companies. A rating agency might downgrade a country’s debt to “junk” status (the lowest grade) if it believes a country will default on its debt (be unable to repay debt or make interest payments). This downgrade will negatively impact the ratings for corporate debt issued in that country. This is because rating agencies often link the debt rating of a company to the debt rating of the country where it is headquartered. For example, DBRS recently downgraded Spain’s debt to an “A (low)” rating due to its poor economic outlook. As a result of this downgrade, DBRS automatically downgraded several Spanish banks to an “A” rating, one notch above Spain. <br /><br />Due to their higher risk of default, junk bonds must pay a higher interest rate to investors than investment grade (non-junk) bonds. A downgrade to junk status is problematic for corporate bonds because many investment fund managers are prohibited by fund prospectuses (legal agreements with investors) from investing fund resources in more risky assets, such as junk bonds, despite their higher interest rates. These fund managers must instead focus on less risky and more liquid, or easily tradable, investment grade bonds. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, there are approximately €200 billion of investment grade corporate bonds traded in Italy and Spain. If these countries are downgraded to junk status, there would likely be too few investment funds willing and able to invest in junk bonds to absorb this amount of downgraded corporate debt.<br /><br />Thankfully, many companies in peripheral countries have plenty of cash on hand to operate in the near term without issuing new bonds. However, if investors remain mostly unwilling to purchase new corporate bonds due to the risk of sovereign downgrades in the coming months, it could cause several problems. First, peripheral companies will eventually need to issue new bonds to successfully refinance existing debt. Second, credit rating agencies worry companies without the ability to issue new bonds could run out of money to pay off existing debt and fund future operations. Thus, in order to keep strong debt ratings, credit rating agencies require companies to prove they still have the ability to issue new debt to bond investors. Finally, if companies in Europe’s periphery have trouble issuing new bonds, or can only issue bonds at relatively high interest rates, it could make them less competitive in the long term. These companies would have higher overall interest costs and less ability to expand and grow than companies headquartered in Europe’s economic core—e.g., Germany.<br /><br />Although they are in the periphery, some Italian and Spanish corporations have recently benefitted from increased investor demand for their bonds. Spurred on by the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s remarks that he would do “whatever it takes” to support the euro, some investors are turning to corporate bonds issued by large, financially stable corporations in peripheral countries to put their growing cash holdings to work. For example, Italian bank UniCredit SpA issued €750 million in bonds on August 14. In Spain, Banco Santander SA raised €2 billion from the sale of bonds on August 21. These were the first transactions of their kind since the first quarter of 2012 in either country. Throughout the rest of 2012, analysts expect corporations in Europe’s periphery to issue as much as €10 billion worth of bonds. <br /><br />Despite the recent increase in investor demand, even financially strong peripheral companies are paying significantly higher interest rates on debt today than they were one year ago. This also is primarily due to the risk of sovereign downgrades in the near future. For example, many investors and analysts fear Italy or Spain could be downgraded to junk status as early as this month. The fear of a sovereign downgrade for Spain is one of the reasons investors demanded Banco Santander pay them an interest rate on the bonds it issued in August that was 1.4 percentage points higher than on bonds the bank issued in March. Given these high interest rates, it is unclear if other financially strong companies in Europe’s periphery, including Spain’s Telefonica, will take advantage of the increase in investor demand and issue bonds in the near future, or wait for more favorable market conditions to return. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-59274061046152199352012-09-04T18:18:00.002-05:002012-09-04T18:18:57.175-05:00The United States’ Housing Market Shows Improvement
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Census: <a href="http://www.census.gov/const/uspricemon.pdf"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Median and
Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States</span></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span class="MsoHyperlink">Census: </span><a href="http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">New
Residential Construction in July 2012</span></a><u><o:p></o:p></u></div>
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FairfaxNews: <a href="http://fairfaxnews.com/2012/08/mortgage-rates-creep-higher-home-sales-rise/"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Mortgage Rates Creep Higher,
Home Sales Rise</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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WHTC: <a href="http://whtc.com/news/articles/2012/aug/22/existing-home-sales-rise-in-july/"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Home Resales Rise, Housing
Recovery Inches Along</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444358404577605113303345548.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights"><span style="color: windowtext; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Rise in Home Resales Points to
Stronger Market</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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USA Today: <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-08-23/housing-reports-august-28/57234792/1"><span style="color: windowtext;">New Home Sales Up 3.6% in July, Match Two-Year High</span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The United States’ housing market has been in a decline since
the housing bubble burst in 2007, sending property values in a drastic downward
spiral. However, this past week, the National Association of Realtors announced
that the sales of existing homes in the month of July increased 10.4% compared
to July of last year, while sales of new homes in the month of July increased
25.3% compared to July of last year. Housing prices also rose across the
country, as the median price of an existing home jumped to $187,300, or 9.4%
over this time last year. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Several factors explain the turn around. First, employment in
the U.S. grew by 163,000 jobs, or 0.12% in the month of July. Job growth
contributes to an increase in home sales as Americans have more discretionary
income—money remaining after a consumer pays off his or her expenses. Americans
also feel more secure about their finances, which makes them more likely to
make a long-term investment in a home. Second, the current low interest rates
allow buyers to purchase a home at a more favorable price over time because they
do not have to pay as much interest on their mortgage. Third is the limited
supply of existing homes for sale. Currently, there are 2.4 million homes for
sale, which is a 24% drop over this time last year. The main reason for such a low
number is that homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes at current prices
(the median price of an existing home in July 2012 was $187,300), which are far
below the pre-recession levels (the median price of an existing home in July
2006 was $238,100). Due to the low number of existing homes for sale, the
prices of homes increased this past month as demand exceeded supply. The low
supply also contributed to an increase in the construction of new homes—a 21.5%
increase in July over the previous year—to compensate for the low number of existing
homes for sale. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although the United States’ housing market showed
improvement this past month, the market still has a long way to go to reach
pre-recession levels. Currently, home sales are 40% below pre-bubble-burst
levels. Moreover, economists, such as t<span style="color: #1c1a1b; mso-fareast-language: JA;">he National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun,</span> predict
that home sales for 2012 will be about 4.6 million. This prediction is
approximately 1 million sales below the healthy annual pace. Thus, although the
United States’ housing market showed improvement, the market is still far from achieving
a full recovery.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16438495.post-27835244494262080052012-08-25T11:35:00.001-05:002012-08-25T11:35:32.285-05:00Asian Development Bank Extends Aid to India<span id="internal-source-marker_0.31232699672885933" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ADB: <a href="http://pid.adb.org/pid/LoanView.htm?projNo=36317&seqNo=01&typeCd=3">Railway Sector Improvement Project: India</a></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">ET: <a href="http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-07-10/news/32618436_1_adb-loan-railway-sector-investment-program-indian-railways">Asian Development Bank to Provide a $150 million Loan to Indian Govt to Improve Rail Freight Services</a></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">India Government Bureau: <a href="http://www.igovernment.in/site/india-gets-150mn-adb-loan-rail-development">India Gets $150mn ADB Loan for Rail Development</a></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">News Track India: <a href="http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/2012/07/10/376-Asian-Development-Bank-provides-67-6-million-dollar-loan-to-Bihar-agribusiness-.html">Asian Development Bank Provides 67.6 Million Dollar Loan to Bihar Agribusiness</a></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">PIB: <a href="http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=85260">ADB Extends $150 million Loan to Develop India’s Railway System</a></span><br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">On July 11, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced that it had granted a loan of $150 million to India as the first part of the Railway Sector Investment Program, to improve passenger transport routes and rail freight services. The total cost of the Railway Investment Program is $1.14 billion, of which the ADB will provide $500 million in four installments while the government of India will contribute a total of $644.6 million.</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">The Indian government will use the loan to lay down double-track line for about 840 kilometers (km) of rail routes and set up electricity through about 640 km all to help improve its rail services along some of the busiest freight and passenger routes in the country. The program will reduce fuel consumption and pollution as the tracks will allow easier passage of freight trains, while the electricity lines laid along the routes will help lower the amount of fuel needed and the emissions from using fuel, because electricity will power some items that had been powered by fuel previously. The program will also enhance railroad safety, as there will be more available tracks to use along the busiest routes so trains will not be congested into small areas of track. In addition, the program will increase the capacity of railway tracks as there will be double track lines laid, meaning that double the amount of traffic can transport goods along the lines. The increased capacity of the Indian railroad system to carry products and people will benefit consumers and producers of goods and services because it will make it easier for the goods and products to get to other areas of the country in a faster and more efficient manner. </span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">The program is also set to improve energy efficiency, reliability, affordability of travel and environmental sustainability along some of the busiest rail travel routes. The program will improve energy efficiency because it will shift a large amount of the transportation of goods from road to rail, which is more environmentally friendly as a railcar can take bigger loads, which means fewer emissions into the environment. The program will improve reliability on rail travel routes because the laying of double tracks along busy routes will lead to less trains waiting to use certain tracks. The program will also improve affordability of travel because more trains will be able to travel along the routes since there is more track, therefore there is not as limited a number of tickets available each day. Thus, more trains means more tickets available for sale; therefore, consumers will be able to find cheaper seats as rail companies lower their prices to fill the extra seats available.</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">A $300,000 portion of the program provided by ADB will also promote sustainable transportation--a means of transport with low impact on the environment--by monitoring carbon emission reductions. The reductions in carbon emission will come from the shifting of a large amount of the transportation of goods from road to rail. The Railway Sector Investment Program will also pursue carbon credits, or a tradable certificate representing the right to emit one ton of carbon dioxide, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty was aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that is not dangerous to the climate of Earth.</span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">The ADB supported the project because it believed that efficient transportation is essential for achieving higher levels of economic growth in India. The higher levels of economic growth will help sustain poverty reduction in the country and will contribute to more production and employment opportunities in India. Thus, the ADB is aiding India in modernizing their infrastructure and becoming more competitive in the global economy.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0